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$460 banked early. Friday’s live trading…

Charlie is off to London so need to find a trade quick. Fortunately the market offered him the opportunity this morning…

Transcript

Hi there, this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading. I hope you’re very well.

It is ten to eight on Friday morning and I’ve only got about…

… two hours to find a trade.

You’d think that should be okay.

In any normal circumstances it might be but I’ve just switched to an hourly chart here and the ugliness that we had yesterday with this big sell off on the Euro here, as you can see, all it’s been doing is going sideways since then.

We’ve seen it pretty much across the board, not quite as bad on some of the other markets, but similar falls.

So what it’s done is put them all in skewed shape when it comes to looking at trying to find trades this morning. They’re all now sitting against resistance and their momentum’s facing one way, trend the other.

So at the moment I’m a little bit stuck.

Like I said I’ve only got two hours to try and find a trade because then I’ve got to head off into London.

So we shall see. There’s one market that I am watching and that is the USD-CAD. Again, that one moved to the upside and now it’s a little but skewed, but there’s a tiny little pattern that we may be able to do something with. So we’ll see if it sets up.

I shall press pause for now.

Shhhh, let’s not wake these markets up.

What I’ve spotted here is the EUR-USD has hit its hourly 21 MA. It’s not showing as being hit on TeleCharts but I assure you it has been on my other charts.

It’s five to eight right now, so I’m actually going to look to short this. It’s a really low risk trade actually because I’m going to keep it tight.

We’ve come into the bands here, and having hit it on my Esignal charts off screen, if we then come back up to the upper band I shall short it there, I’ll put a stop just above there and we’ll just see.

If I get stopped out it’ll only be for a few pips, but if I don’t then the risk/reward is pretty good. We’ll see if it then rolls over a little bit.

I think that’s the play I’m going to have a look at here.

The trend is down on the hourly and four-hourly charts, we’ve hit those levels. We’ve got negative momentum on the four-hourly charts. Positive momentum on the hourly charts today, so it’s one that I wouldn’t normally go with, but it’s a different circumstance because of this trend and the heavy trend that happened yesterday.

We’ve still got that negative momentum on the four-hourly charts so I’m going to keep it very tight here because I could be completely wrong and it just blasts up and actually has quite a good run. Hence why I can see the potential to put the trade on with a very tight risk. I’ll press pause.

This trade could be over very quickly after I get into this, we’ll soon see.

So coming up to the upper band. It’s going to have a three or four-pip stop by the looks of things.

I’ll get four or five units in if I can. In last week’s video I said about putting five units in now, so we’ll see if we can get this is.

Now I’ve pressed record it’s sort of dithering, but we’re just about coming up. It’s got about 30 seconds to go to 8am, so we should have a flurry of activity at that point. I’m either going to get very quickly stopped out or maybe it’ll work out. Maybe I won’t even get in.

I’m just waiting to see if we can hit that upper band. If we get back up to 15 I might just take that because it’s only a four-pip stop from there.

So it’s on 14.4, let’s see if I can get a couple in… There we go, 15.

I’ve got two in so far. Still want to get the good price, so I’m going to quickly while I’m waiting there… See, take your mouse away from the screen for just a few seconds.

That’s my five units. I’m flat on the account at the moment outside of this trade, so let’s bring that across. I’m just going to quickly get these stops in before something goes wrong and it comes flying up against me.

I’ve got to quickly do this… 12185 would be just above the high. It can be potentially problematic if you’re getting your stops in and it’s moving against you.

So we just had that reaction off that upper band. Even on TeleCharts it’s showing up as being hit.

I’m just looking to see if we can have a bit of a reaction down, but we’ll see. That stop’s in play but it’s very early days at the moment.

I’ll trade it a bit aggressively this morning because I know that I’m not going to have a lot of time. So if we can get down to this yellow line here, the 200, then I’ll take something off and just try and treat it as “okay, we’re going to have to do it that way”.

The risk/reward remember, I had a three and a half-pip stop, so as soon as I’m down to here my risk reward is pretty good… If it can get down there, we’ll just have to see.

That’ll then pay for the trade, so to speak, if we could get down there. I’d take a couple of units off and see if I could run the rest and progressively just take bits off as it comes down.

For now it may just be about to do a reversal and go back up high.

I’m about to press pause, but we’ll just see while it’s playing around here. If we flurry down a little bit to this zone then that would be useful.

Here we go, very close here, I’m just watching it off screen… There we go, I’ll take that one off and quickly take another one off.

I’ve taken two units off. Let me bring up the account.

So remember, I was risking three pips and I’ve just managed to get those two units off there, which were from the entries. One was about ten pips and the other one was eight or nine pips.

It feels like scalping, but the risk/reward was good on the trade.

So what I’ll do now is move my stops down, so then whatever happens I can’t lose on the trade. Then we’re just going to see if we can ride this a little bit if it comes down a little bit more.

If it comes down to those lows I’ll take another one off, and then we’ll progressively just take some units off. It’s just the way it’s going to have to be this morning because of the lack of time. Even though it’s only 8:03, I know what it’s like, and very quickly I may not find another opportunity.

So let’s just see if we can push down into this zone. I’ll take another unit off down there, if we can get down there, then I’ll adjust those stops.

So we’ll see, is it going to give me just an extra pip or two just down to there, or not?

In the meantime, while I’m waiting, I’ll try and keep an eye on it while I adjust those stops off screen.  I’ll move them to 16 so that whatever happens I can’t lose. I’m moving them down to 16 so that whatever happens, there is a profit now.

Let’s bring this up. This is obviously a trade that’s happened very quickly this morning. The risk/reward, like I said has been good. I’ve not taken a lot in pips terms today, but the risk was so small, as we saw. I was in at 15, one was 14, and my stop was at 18.5, so it was a three and a half/four-pip stop.

So relative to the stops, the reward was fine but it feels quite small there.

What I’m looking at is just the potential, I don’t know if it’s going to, I could be just getting a little bit lucky because we had that reaction to that 21 MA on the hourly, because what it’s already done is come down to my lower bands.

So it’s just ping-ponging between these bands, hence why I’ve been aggressive in taking profits off, because what it could be doing overall is just carry on ping-ponging and is actually still going to work its way higher.

Like I said earlier on, the hourly chart does have positive momentum even though the four-hourly doesn’t. I’ve gone with that overall trend and the four-hourly chart there this morning. So it’s just a case of saying, what’s going to happen?

Can it come down and retest those lows from yesterday? That’s what I’d love to see with the final unit, of course. That’s down at 111 upper 80s. So if we can come down to that zone then great.

For now I don’t really need to do anything. I’ll move my stop down to 15 actually now, I had it at 16. Whatever happens at least this trade’s going to be done, so to speak.

So it’s just a case of seeing if we can get down into the sub 112s, the low 11190s. That would probably do it because it would just spike-lows down there. I shall press stop and come back to this.

Okay, just back. As you can see we’re coming down a little bit more now.

As we’re coming around to the round number I’m wondering whether to take another unit off here, as we’re around the round number I’m going to close another unit off. That leaves me with one unit left now.

I’m just trying to get this video done this morning a little bit. So as it’s come down fairly quickly for me and my risk/reward is good, at whatever level. So we’ll still see if we can get down into those upper 80s/low 90s. If we can do that then I’ll take that final unit off down there.

Here it comes now maybe… No, it’s bouncing again.

We’ve come around to the round number, so it’s always possible that we bounce a bit there.

I’ve taken that second to last unit off, so we’ll just see what happens with that final one. So we’ll see if we can get another ten pips or whatever out of this move.

There’s not really much more to do now so the stop is at just beyond breakeven at 14 now. We’ll just see if we get this breakdown.

I’m trying to make my omelette, I’ll be back in a minute.

Look at this, the Euro’s come all the way back. It’s nearly hit my stop, it’s not quite stopped me out yet, my stop’s at 14.

This is why I’ve been aggressive in taking the profits. Let’s do a recap on the hourly chart, because we’ve just been ping-ponging between the bands here, so of course I’d like to see it roll down, but that’s why I’ve taken the majority of those profits off.

It could go either way today, so I’ve managed to, on a risk/reward basis, have a good trade. The potential is that this thing still wants to do maybe a bigger retracement, but because we were into that hourly 21 MA I knew that we should have some sort of reaction from that.

The way that we were playing around with the bands on the five minute charts, then it was just a case of having come inside the bands, then looking to retest the bands from inside, like we did, then it just fell away.

It was fortunate this morning, but it’s that sort of thing that I do all of the time when I’m looking at these sort of trades. It’s just that they don’t always power off straight away in the space of five minutes, like that one.

We shall see what happens with this final portion. It’s interesting actually because the Euro’s sort of holding there, and off screen I can see the Pound is actually staying low. How can you fathom that one out? I think there’s GDP figures out at about 9:30 this morning, so that’s probably why it’s moving a bit more.

We’ll see what happens with this EUR-USD.

I haven’t quite been stopped yet. I think what will happen is, If I were to get stopped there then it looks like it’ll be about…

£300 profit.

Which is okay for an early trade. If it rolls over then it’ll be more like £400 or so.

We shall see. I’ll press pause for now and will come back as and when this trade completes.

Just back, as we can see the Euro has come back up and so it has now stopped me out on that.

So it was the right thing to do to get banking on this occasion. It’s just a case of reading the markets and trying to ascertain what they’re trying to do.

Sometimes you look at a trade and you want to just try and run the whole lot, and other times you’ve just got to take your positions off, just get to a final fifth of your position and just see if that one runs. That’s exactly what happened there today.

So it was fairly fast-fired this morning.

We banked $462, or £300 there on those positions.

That’s me done, and I’ve now got to head off to London.

It’s quite handy, I was a bit concerned when I first logged in this morning. I didn’t know whether I’m going to get the time to find a trade, but fortunately the Euro helped us out a little bit there.

Maybe it’s going to do a little reversal. It’s got a daily pivot quite a bit higher up at 11253 and we’re currently at 11216, but it’s got a lot of work to do.

I think the interesting one this morning is going to be the Pound. We’ve got GDP figures coming out, and if we go to the Pound it’s just coming down at the moment. What it’s doing is coming back down to retest its lows from yesterday, that’s all it’s doing. So we’ll see what happens with that one.

Anyway, I better stop rabbiting on.

Have a fabulous weekend and we’ll be back in touch on Friday

One Comment

  1. Charlie Burton-Reply
    March 2, 2015 at 10:34 am

    Hi john and thanks for your email. It’s purely that the broker I use doesn’t have the functionality for me to attach the stop before buying! Yes it’s a potential risk if the market were to suddenly move before I got my stops in but in reality it’s very rare based probably on my style of trading. Charlie

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