$500 banked this morning – Friday’s live trading…
Charlie takes two trades this morning. It’s a long video but well worth watching right up to the end where he shares some important advice…
Hi, this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading hopefully.
It is 7:43am
I’m just having a look across the markets. There’s potential for a little trade here on the USD-CAD.
Believe it or not, it would actually be a short trade for a potential run down to these lows.
We’ve got a divergence on the five minute chart from these two tops and we have a little bit of negative momentum in the background on the hourly charts.
Not too much but for me to try a trade here….
… the risk will be absolutely minimal.
Because it will be literally about a three pip stop.
I’ll bring a deal ticket over and we’ll see.
What I’m doing is waiting for the close. What I don’t want to do is see it close and breakout, so I want to see it close back here.
We have got just over a minute to go.
Okay, so I’ll give it a go and see if we can get a little blip up. It’s closed back inside these bands, that’s what I was waiting for.
This could be over very quickly a trade like this with such a tight stop, but we’ll see if I can get it.
Here we go, I want to get five units it.
I want to quickly get my stops in place so I’ll just press pause while I’m doing that.
Right, that’s all of those in.
I actually had a question last week, how come I take my trades and then put my stops in?
It’s purely because of my broker, if my broker allowed me to put my stops in at outset as I take my trade, then I would do that, but I can’t because the broker doesn’t have that facility.
Here are the orders. Obviously, there are five of them, but I can’t get five across here, it’s going to take up the whole page, but at least I can show you a few of them. I can get four in, there’s not enough space to put five in.
So what I’m looking for is a move down, I don’t suppose it’s going to happen quickly. The reason I know it’s not going to happen quickly is because it’s got lots of support below it at the moment to try and break down through; five minute 21 here, five minute 50 down here.
So it could take a while if it does work out.
I think it’s probably a slightly lower probability trade than some because of the nature of where it is but we’ll see.
Like I said, it’s got a little bit of negative momentum, it’s got a daily pivot right down just below these lows to try and run to.
I would be looking, if it does come down, I would start offloading as it starts to come down and then have a final target down there.
It could be that this one amounts to nothing and then I’m waiting. It is nonfarm payroll day so it could be that we end up waiting until this afternoon for a second trade. We’ll see.
I’ve been watching the likes of the Pound and the Euro, but there’s nothing clear there at this time.
So it could well be that we end up pressing pause and waiting for this afternoon.
I’ll stop talking for the minute and we’ll come back to this.
This is interesting, I’ve just walked back in, and as you can see two of the positions has just been closed on this spike, but three of them are still in. So it’s obviously just filled a couple of orders.
So it’s gone up.
My stock was at 96 and probably on the spread it’s just nicked me out there, and then it’s come back down.
Two of them have been stopped out and I’m just making my omelette here. Oh well, nothing I can do about that.
They were stopped out for -£16 each. I can’t show you the account because I’m in a swing trade elsewhere, but I can do a screen-grab so you can actually see what’s going on the USD-CAD itself.
These are the positions, and as you can see, two of them have just got stopped out at 963.
So we’ve got nabbed on light volume I guess.
Now it’s 8am, we’ve got an 8am pivot coming in at 85. So we come down to 85, I’ll take one of the units off.
That’s a shame having those two units taken out because I could have used one of those to take something off. 85 is not exactly a lot, it’s eight pips.
Maybe I won’t, it’s all so small, I don’t think I’ll bother. I’ll just see, maybe when it comes down to there maybe I’ll trail my stop by a pip or so. We’ll do it that way.
I just don’t think it’s worth it. For the sake of eight pips, I might as well try and hold on to this and see if we can get that bigger move to come in, which may take a bit longer.
I’ll press pause for now.
Right, whilst we’re doing this I think there might be a set-up elsewhere. The Pound might be having a reversal set-up. Let’s have a quick look.
I’m trying to eat my omelette here.
So the Pound may actually set-up for a reversal. I’m going to be watching this one.
It’s set up at the moment. It’s got a nice divergence between this low here and this low here, and it’s got a pivot up above at 38.
So that is potentially setting up for a reversal, so I’m going to bring a deal ticket up for that one.
So I’ve just got to wait and watch this price action for a little bit but I’ll be watching this and if it sets up then we’ll be taking a trade on this one.
So I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, so this USD-CAD is coming down. It’s come down to that pivot I think. Like I said, it’s going to be about 85.
I’m, still waiting on the GBP-USD.
So it has come down to that pivot. I could possibly move my stop down a pip for the sake of a pip and move it down to 95 because it shouldn’t want to come all the way back up there again if this thing is going to hold and carry on rolling down.
So it has hit some support but I’m just leaving it because if I’m going to try and run it to a larger level I might as well stick with that plan and run it to that larger level… Especially as it stopped me out of two tickets.
We’ve got these larger targets down here anyway so we’ll just see. It’s probably going to take hours.
Let’s go back and have a look at the Pound again.
The longer this pound takes, the more momentum is going to come into the downside, which will then mean that I can’t take it. So we’re sort of running out of time on the Pound if it can’t sort itself out.
So I’ll carry on watching the pound, but it’s running out of time a little bit and I may have to ignore it. It’s momentum is starting to wane, even on the hourly chart it’s starting to diminish. Therefore what it could be wanting to do is run down to yesterday’s lows.
We’ll see, I’ll keep watching it for a few minutes.
Just back, this USD-CAD has come down to that five minute 50 now, so like I said earlier on, it’s just going to hit layer after layer of support, so it could take quite a long time. It could then get a decent bounce all the way back up again, even if it is ultimately going to roll.
So I’m not having great expectations of this coming straight down, as nice as it would be if it did.
I think as a trader you have to be mentally prepared for the ebb and flow of the market. I think a lot of traders, especially newer traders get into a trade and they want a position to just immediately go in their favour and then go straight to target.
It’s nice when those trades come along, but it happens less often that a market just goes straight to your target. Usually it hangs around, may pull back or whatever, even if it is going to go to your target. So you have to be prepared mentally for those sort of moves.
Now what I do need to do here is adjust these positions. I’ll have to come back to the Pound in a minute. For the USD-CAD, what I need to do is move these stops down to 95 now.
The target area, like I said before, is just above that daily pivot. So 12470 is the actual pivot, so I’ll put it in at 12473. 73 is just about the break of those lows.
So what I need to do, is do this with all the other deal tickets as well.
So as it currently stands I’m sitting in a whopping profit of…
£153 or $292 on this trade.
It is a shame that I got nicked out on those two up there. That’s a real shame because I had a good run, just a bit unfortunate on the spread, that happens.
C’est la vie, that’s trading.
So there’s nothing more for me to do with that, the orders are in.
So let’s have a look at this GBP-USD.
I need to make up my mind as to whether to take up a trade on that one. It’s come into the bands, it’s got a divergence in play.
What I’ll do is I’ll trade it, but I’ll trade it with two lots. So I’m just going to wait for a close inside these bands first of all. We are at 8:32am so we have three minutes to go.
So I’ll wait for a close and wherever we close I’ll look for a dip back to the lower part of the band, pop a stop below the low.
I need to make sure we close inside first. I could just buy it here and all of a sudden it closes down here and you think, oops, I didn’t even wait for a close inside the bands.
We’ve got a divergence in the background, momentum has certainly waned on the hourly chart, hence why I’m only going to take this with a two lot position.
So I’ll press pause for now and we’ll come back to this.
Okay, so we are coming to the end of this five minute period. Look for the dip, then I’ll be putting my stop below here. So that’s about 15220 I believe, I’ll look at that in a second.
First of all we’re looking for this dip, so I’ll press pause while I’m waiting.
Okay, so we’re getting close.
It’s going to be a very tight stop again so we’ll just see if I can get in as it comes down. Keeping it tight because of the risks to this.
And now I’ve pressed record it’s just waiting here…
The time that we’re running at the moment, we’re 13 minutes into this recording, it doesn’t look like I’ll be holding on for the nonfarm payroll.
So whatever happens this morning, if these trades end up amounting to nothing, even though the USD-CAD is down at 80 at the moment and it comes all the way up and stops me out, and this one stops me out, I’ll be out of time. I won’t be able to hold and carry on recording through nonfarm payrolls, otherwise this video will about 40 minutes long.
This is our chance here this morning…
I’ll just press pause while we’re waiting.
Okay, it’s getting closer.
I always want to try and get the best price I can get because so often it does set-up, so why bother?
There we go, we’ve just put two units in on that one with a very tight stop. So I’m going to quickly get those stops sorted out off screen, and I’ll press pause while I’m doing that.
Okay, so the stops are in down at 21, just below these lows, so it’s about a four pip stop on this one.
We’re just going to see what happens now.
Let’s have a quick look at the USD-CAD whilst we’re waiting on the Pound.
That is coming lower, it’s at 77 now. So what I will do is move my stops to break even. Why don’t I do that on this one, I think Cable’s coming down. At the moment Cable’s approaching my stop but I’ll keep an eye on that.
So what we’ll do is we’ll move the stops on this one, we can afford to move them to breakeven. My entry was at 93 so I need to put them at 92 to be properly at breakeven, because it’ll stop me out at about 93 that way.
I’ve now got my stops at 93.
I think I’m about to get stopped out on the Pound, let’s have a look. £-60 on the Pound, I’ll quickly do a screen shot.
That one didn’t work out, so we’re relying on the CAD now.
There’s the Pound trade, there’s the two units at 25 and 24, and a total loss of 60. That one’s not worked out.
It is diverging, and I’ve given it a go for that 8am pivot. It might come up again later but as far as I’m concerned I’ve given it a go. I’m not going to bother carrying on with it.
The potential is, if this USD-CAD decides to come all the way back up to my breakeven point then I’ll be at breakeven on those units. Obviously I took two lots of £16 loss on being nicked out, and I’ve just taken a £60 loss on the Pound.
So it’s possible that I have a total loss of around about £92 this morning if this CAD doesn’t play itself out.
If it does play itself out then I don’t know what the totals will be. We’re up about £150 on the USD-CAD. If it gets down to there it will be about £250, less the £60 it’s all going to be small stuff this morning because of missing out on those two units, unfortunately.
We’ll see, this one, like I said, could take a while.
I shall press pause, I’m going to go and get myself sorted out, ready for the gym, then we’ll come back to this.
Okay, I’m just back here because this USD-CAD is really approaching that level. Remember we’ve got those targets down at 73 I’ve been looking at the hourly chart, and what I’ve done is I’ve decided to adjust one of the targets lower, just in case we get a big runner today.
It doesn’t have to, it may stop here at the pivot. It’s not quite at the pivot yet.
So what I’ve done, I’ve got the two targets in at 73 if we can get down to that pivot… I should move my stop down another smidgen, I guess… And I’m going to leave one open right the way down to about 12440, or so.
Let’s just have a look at the hourly chart, because we’ve got these prior highs down here, 40 is a bit low, I’m going to put it in at this high, I’ll check that level and just see if I get a runner on that final one.
If I get a runner then that really adds the cream.
I’m just going to adjust the target on that, I’ve put it in at 41 but I think it needs to be a bit higher than that, so I’ll put it in at 47. I’ll double check the levels in a minute.
The high’s actually 49, so I need to adjust that level again. So if it’s actually 49 then I’ll put it in at 51. So if we get a run there then it makes quite a bit of difference really.
In the meantime, is there anything I can do with my stops? They’re at breakeven. I could probably move them by a pip, I’ll move them to 92.
The thing is with this, now it has come into this congestion zone and I’m looking for a level which is just below that, but that’s how it is today. So it could mean that we’re due for that bounce as we come down into these prior lows here.
So it could well be that at any point here we could just get to 74 even, and then bounce without poking through to that pivot level.
I’ll just stick to the plan and see how we go.
So at the moment it is sitting up £232, that’s including those two losses.
We’ve just got to see if we can get down there. If we can get down to there, great, then if it does have a bigger push then it would add another £200 on top of whatever we make.
It could end up being a £400-odd day just on this trade, including the loss on the Pound…
If it was to get that run.
So what ever happens at the moment it stops at 92 now, so I can’t lose on this remainder, but we’ll just see what happens. It’s either going to be a minus £60 if it comes all the way up and stops me out. If it comes all the way in my favour, then I’ll be making about £400. We shall see.
Let’s go back to Cable quickly and see what happened. It’s just carried on going lower, as you can see. So nothing to really do with the Pound there. It had a divergence but I suspect that’s gone now and its momentum’s starting to build. So no interest in the Pound right now. Even though it’s going lower, it’s just going into yesterday’s lows, so I have no interest.
We’ll put this back to the USD-CAD and we’ll see what happens.
Okay, just back, and as we can see it’s been rallying up and it’s come all the way back down. So what I’ve done is I’ve moved my stop to 89, so I’ve moved it to just above these highs now.
So we’ve put in a pivot over here now, so I’ve moved the stop to there.
It’s all a little bit volatile here this morning. If we have a look at some of the other markets, the EUR-USD has had a decent move down, so it’s a shame we missed that one. I didn’t have any fresh set-ups on it earlier on when it was over here. So there was nothing fresh on it, then it’s all of a sudden gone sideways and then just collapsed.
So you can’t always catch them all if you haven’t got everything lined up.
The pound, I think, is still down as well.
So these are the ones that actually in the end had more points, but when I was looking at them earlier, they didn’t have anything fresh overly setting up. Like I said, I tried that little divergence trade over here, but like I said, it was only four pips, something like that.
I don’t mind taking a trade like that if it’s only got a small risk.
Anyway, for now those markets are really struggling, but there’s not really much I can do with them.
We’ll just carry on seeing what’s going to happen with this USD-CAD. It’s holding at the moment. When you look at it, it’s done 50 minutes in a holding pattern, se we’re going to have to see. If it does breakdown then we’ve got some half decent targets down there which would make it not too bad of a trade.
We’ll see, I’m going to be heading out to the gym shortly, so if it doesn’t breakdown before I go then we’ll see what happens by the time I get back.
Okay, so just back, and as we can see it has come down, it’s hit my levels at 73, and as we can see it’s bounced straight back up off that pivot.
Still got the stop at 89 on the remainder, so we’re just going to carry on and see what happens. Let’s go back out to that hourly chart, and it’s come down and hit the main daily pivot, so that could be it. I’ve taken the option to see if this can gradually rollover without coming up and stopping me out. If it does, I might get a better roll on it.
Certainly looks like I’ve missed out on the likes of Cable this morning, it’s had a good old run down, and I think the Euro has as well.
I’m off to the gym now, we’ll see what happens later. This one could take hours. Now it’s hit the daily pivot we’ll have to see. It could still stop out yet, there’ll still be a four pip gain on the final bit.
Currently up $471 on this trade, £244.
If it runs all the way down to that target it will be about £400, $700.
Okay, just back, it’s just after 11am. We can see that this USD-CAD has meandered its way marginally lower.
What I have just spotted, looking at the four hourly charts, there’s a four hour band just below where we currently are, so is the hourly 50 just a little bit lower. Although I had that target down at 50, I think if we push down to that hourly 50, which is coming in at 68, I think I’ll just close this position out as we get down to support there.
At least it means I can go into nonfarm payrolls being flat, if we can get there. It’s just a little bit further to go, so we’ll just press pause and see.
One thing that I think is worthwhile mentioning is that when I’m trading, my goal is to find deals, that’s all that trading is. You’re just trying to find a good deal. If you can find good risk/reward deals then it doesn’t matter if you have losing trades, because you know it’s a good deal.
It’s a bit like Dragon’s Den, when those dragons are sitting there, they know that for every ten people that they invest in, a number of them will not succeed. That’s why they’re always looking for that good deal and getting a good percentage return on their investment, because they know that that percentage return has got to pay for some of those deals which fail.
It’s exactly the same with trading. So what you’re always looking to do before you go into a trade is say, is this a good deal? Not, here’s a set-up, I’m going to buy this set-up and the worry about the actual return afterwards. If you’re constantly looking for trades where you’ve got good risk to reward then you know you’ll be okay.
That’s my piece of advice for this week, look for good deals. Too many traders take trades because they see set-ups and then worry about the profits afterwards. That’s too late because once you’re in a trade, that’s too late because you start getting emotional about it and you can’t think with the same clarity.
You must already have had a good idea of where you’re looking to run a trade to.
So we’re coming down a little bit here. Hopefully I’m not going to be wrong and it does completely roll over, but as it’s come down into that four hour lower band, then I’m just looking for that extra pip or so. Then I’ll close this final section out, then we can make it a wrap as we’re 27 minutes in.
Do you know what, for the sake of another pip or two, I think I’ll just close it out. It’s been a good deal. I risked three pips.
We got in at 93 originally and had a stop at 96.
So I risked three pips to make 28 pips.
See what I mean? Good deals!
We tried that little good deal, it was still a deal on the Pound, which didn’t play out, we lost £60, but we’ve made £323 on this USD-CAD trade, $600.
So not bad in the end, remember on this USD-CAD we just got nicked at 96, we got stopped out on two of them just on the spread. I was lucky not to have got stopped out on the rest. If we hadn’t have got stopped out on those two then we would have been looking at £500-odd currently, so that would have been a bit nicer.
Anyway, it’s okay for this morning and we’ll see what happens with the nonfarm payrolls later.
Stay safe. If you’re under-confident on nonfarm payrolls then don’t trade it, it can get very messy.
I’ll be back in touch next week.