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Sam@ezeetrader.com

5 Comments

  1. Karl-Reply
    April 27, 2017 at 3:18 pm

    I’ve been through this exact experience… Testing various scenarios of a strategy, playing with win rates and targets, and in the end selecting the scenario with a higher win rate even though back testing suggested it would make less money than the strategies with bigger targets.

    You may remember I was actually trading with an inverted R:r for a while because the win rate just felt better, even though all of the evidence pointed towards a lower win rate being more profitable.

    Ego is a real demon when it comes to trading!

  2. Jim-Reply
    April 27, 2017 at 7:07 pm

    I’ve traded with stops and without stops (using very low leverage)
    Both work, trading without stops will not blow your account if you use very low leverage.
    But without stops, you will sit in trades out of the money for very long periods, and I found that used large amounts of emotional capital to manage. It also means you are in the market for longer periods, therefore subject to more volatility, which increases risk.

    Use sensible stops, you know it makes sense!

    The longer I am in this game , the more I realise it is mostly about risk management.

  3. Brian-Reply
    April 28, 2017 at 1:37 pm

    Hello Charlie and thank you for your helpful comments, perhaps I could mention a couple of points in relation to good profits with a success rate around say 45%. Yes, if you have a r/r rate of 2/1 you will get a profit of 35 points on 100 trades. So, all that is now needed is a system that can give about 45% hit rate. Now it occurs to me that if you spin a coin ( heads = buy, tails =sell or whatever) you should get a hit rate of somewhere between 40 and 60%. ( I have detailed coin spinning research!) . All I now need is nerves of steel and I am made for life. It might be a bit tedious though.

    • Charlie Burton-Reply
      April 28, 2017 at 2:15 pm

      You have the right thinking. But you have to factor in with spinning a coin that the market also has to move far enough in your direction to hit the target too so in fact those probabilities come out lower!

  4. Brian-Reply
    May 1, 2017 at 12:53 pm

    Try just before a market moving announcement. Works well ! But not for everyday use.

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