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Charlie finishes up $2200 this morning – Friday’s live trading…

Charlie has a good run today on the pair he’s trading….

This is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading, I hope you’re very well.

Just having a quick look across the markets. It’s eight o’clock now, I’ve been sat here for 20 minutes or so but not really seen anything as yet.

Just keeping an eye on these markets, I’ve got the EUR-USD up at the moment. They’ve had a bit of movement overnight so we’ll see what happens, but I haven’t got anything completely specific just yet as far as setups are concerned.

If I put it into perspective and look at an hourly chart of the euro, we can see that it ran up overnight and it’s really just gone sideways for hours now. It’s a very muted price action which then makes it a bit more difficult to get a setup where you’ve got clarity.

We don’t have any news out that’s really going to be affecting the EUR-USD or any of the Dollar pairs today. So we’re just reliant on general movement . That’s fine, but at the same time we obviously want to see what else might propel the markets here today.

I’m sure something will setup. just for the purposes of disclosure though, I had got into an AUD-USD trade late yesterday to trade overnight, sometimes I put positions in that run overnight, and that’s done okay actually.

That’s the hourly chart of the AUD-USD. So just for the purposes of disclosure there’s my Aussie trade from overnight. I’ve left one open actually so we’ll see what happens with that one, but I’ve banked two off this morning.

Basically we’ve come up to the four-hourly upper bands, so I thought I’d take some off and just see with the last position, if it does carry on going then fine. For the purposes of disclosure I thought I just better show you that today because that’s not something I’ve done within this video update.

Right I’ll press pause for now, we’ll come back to this.

Okay, so I’ve just been looking at this AUD-USD. The way I’m looking at this is by the end of today I’m looking to see if this is actually going to go higher. So we’ve had this little pullback, we may want to pullback some more. So I’m going to use some of the profits that I’ve had as a bit of a buffer to go in again.

We’ve just done a little pullback, as we can see here. It’s fairly muted price behaviour overall so I’m not expecting too much, but I am going to put another unit or two in here actually and then we’ll see how we go.

So as we come down to the lower band let’s get another unit in there. So I’ve put another two units in now. So we’re just going to see if it’s going to meander its way around.

Basically what’s happened is, when it’s come up to these highs here in the early hours of this morning, that’s the daily pivot. So it’s just been reacting from that. Like I said earlier on, it’s also the upper band of those four-hour charts.

Now we could want to come down to this lower band, so I wanted to be in here because we have just come down to hit some other support levels that I use on an hourly chart, but I know there’s the potential for us to want to come down to these lower bands here on the four-hourly chart, but we don’t have to. That’s what I’ve put these two entries in there and we’re just going to see.

So I’m going to give this one a bit of room to breathe because, like I said, I want to see if I can be in this one and see if we can have a larger move higher.

So these are the two positions I’ve just got in, I’ll get the stops sorted out in a minute. So we’re just going to have to see how we get on with these. If we start breaking up above these highs then I’ll know we’ll be off for a larger run.

I’m going to be using a wide stop here today because I’m using those profits that were banked earlier to effectively pay for this trade. Then if we do come down to those lower bands on the hourly charts then I will actually use that as an add-in position. That’s where the risk will start, there’ll be normal tight stops on that.

So for now I’m using those profits to pay for this trade so I’ll put the stops way down. If we look at the hourly chart, we’ve got an hourly 21 down here in the 50s so it’s got to at least be below that. That would then come in with those lower four-hourly bands into the 50s. So my stop’s got to be way down here basically.

So that’s what I’m going to do. It’s a different trade because I can’t see any actual individual specific day-trading setups, just having to trade it this way today, more on a sort of intraday swing basis basically. So as I’ve got those profits in the bank I’m looking at this overall and thinking this AUS-USD may want to have a bit more upside.

If I’m completely wrong then I’ll end up giving back those profits that I made overnight, but that’s not the end of the world. Sometimes you have to use your profits and you have to put risk on if you want to be in the markets and be making money.

One thing that traders are susceptible to is that once they’ve made some profits they’re fearful of getting back into the market.

Obviously you have to keep the scoreboard ticking over, but what happens then is a trader will tighten up their trading activity once they’ve had a nice little run for several weeks, then they find that they get a little bit tight with their trading because they’re so fearful of giving back the profits that they’ve made.

That’s a problem that all traders will experience at some point or other, and that can even happen over a period of time like I was talking about, but even sometimes on an intraday basis.

I’m very much a believer that when day trading, if you have a good morning then you might want to protect those gains in the afternoon, but what I’m talking about here is something a little bit different. I’ve made those gains overnight so I could very easily have just sat there and not done anything today, but at the same time, if you’re seeing an opportunity then you’ve got to put that fresh opportunity on.

It’s not a day trade opportunity though, I think that we’ve got something, maybe, with a little bit more upside just yet. Overall we’ve had this big move up, then we’ve had this big reversal, and now we’ve just retraced a portion of that reversal, but it’s only a small portion of it really. So I want to see if we’ve got a bit more upside to get into the 77s, we shall see.

I think this one’s probably going to take a while to play out, so I’ll press pause for now.

So we’re back, I’ve been getting ready.

So we can see that the AUS-USD has been going up a bit since I got in down here, but this is only on a five-minute chart, it’s not a lot, it’s just been playing around really.

So what I’m looking at is an hourly chart, and it’s overall going sideways, but when I see a market which is going sideways what happens is stops build up on either side of the market. So what I’d like to see is actually price to come down.

I don’t mind if it goes up higher because I’m in with those units, but I’d like to build this position to a larger position anyway and I’m not going to build it if we just creep up. I’d have to go only if it was accelerating and we had really nice price bars, which is not going to happen because we haven’t got any news today.

So what I’d like to see is if we can break these lows from overnight then I want the price to settle. So if we come well into the 60s, we break all of those and then it settles and comes back into its bands, that’s where I’d really like to hook up and see if I can buy some more units in this. That’s when I’ll tighten up all the stops and have the stops wherever it is that I get in.

Now I am going down the gym this morning so I’m leaving this to sort itself out. Hopefully I don’t miss it when I do go out, but I’m suspecting that this is going to take quite a while, so I’m not going to be in a massive rush, I want to see how the price action plays out as and when it does break these lows.

It’s not something that I need to immediately get in just because we’ve broken the lows so I’ll be watching, waiting for the price action to steady a little bit. Hopefully that doesn’t all happen and starts coming up while I’m out.

Anyway that’s the plan if we come down. If we do just come up and we hold here and we just start steadily coming up then I’ll just hold on with those three units and it will end up being a nice enough day. If we come down, that’s when it starts getting more interesting and where I want to build a slightly larger position and see if by the end of today it starts coming back up again.

Got a nice little trend line across these highs here which I can see if I bring up the trend line tool. It’s not a bad little trend line there. So we’ve got that coming into contention at some point as well, probably later on. It’s had a couple of attempts against it, been rejected, which is good. So I want us to come down now and then we’ll see if we can come back up later.

Now, if I really want to get clever, what I could do is actually start hedging and selling here at the same time. So I could actually put a couple of sell orders in to match my overall long orders. So in theory I could sell a couple of units here against the two that I’ve gone long on earlier on, pop a stop just a bit above here so that if we do just come up then it’s fine, but if we come down like I want us to then I’ll make a little bit of money on those which are offsetting the longs from earlier on.

This is fine, but because I’m going out I could miss out on that. So I’m just debating whether to do that or not. I think I’d rather just say I haven’t got the time, I’m going to be out and about and I may miss the opportunity to close out… It doesn’t have to come down, remember. It doesn’t have to come down to those levels.

So for that reason I think I’ll leave that opportunity. If I had more negative momentum at the moment then I might be tempted, but we don’t, we’ve still got positive momentum on the hourly charts. I’d like to see us come down so I can build a position, but it doesn’t have to.

So we shall see. I shall press pause for now.

I’ve just walked in from the gym and I can see that we have come down while I’ve been out, and we’ve come back in.

If I’ve missed out here it’s not the end of the world. I’ve missed out on adding in, because I would have added in if I’d have been here. It’s broken these lows, exactly what I said I wanted it to do, then it’s come back in. I would have been able to build the position there but it may not be completely over yet. It might still roll back over and do one final double bottom and march on, you never know.

At the end of the day I’m still in with three positions at the moment and if it just gradually moves up from here so be it. It may be that if we breakout this afternoon and we don’t come back down I can then start building a position as we start heading up.

We shall see about that. I better go and get myself sorted out and we’ll be back to this in a bit.

Crikey, I’ve just walked back into my office. Shows you what you can miss. I think when I last looked at it we were over here, I’ve just been to the shops and I’ve just walked in and thought oooh!

Let’s have a look at the account then because I’ve not been able to add any more to these positions than we already had. So these are the two that I closed this morning, still got this one running. I was in on these ones around 7625 last night and these are the ones earlier on at 74 and 72.

So obviously the overall P&L is marching up so far, but you look at it now and think, okay, that was a big miss there whilst down the gym, but that’s just the way it is. C’est la vie, sometimes you catch them sometimes you don’t.

My analysis was correct, I said exactly what I was looking for this market to do, come down, take those stops out and then settle and then I would have come into the bands and I would have then bought it, if I was here. So I would be sitting on a lot more than £1500 right now.

Anyway, it’s coming up, but we’ve still got a little bit of a mish-mash of momentum across the board. We’ve always had positive momentum today, hence why I wanted to be a buyer but we still haven’t got them all lined up for a pure momentum play, so to speak.

So at the moment it’s having a nice run up here. It’s just done a double top effectively into those overnight highs. We’re just going to have to see if we can break up some more.

So at the moment I have no real intention of closing out, so we’ll give it a little bit more time and then…

…Oooh! I’ve just spotted on a five-minute chart there might be a trade setting up. I may well get a trade setup coming.

Watch this space, there could be a trade setup coming in the next, I don’t know how long, but once it sets up.

Okay, so there is a little setup but it’s just not worth it from a pips perspective. I don’t think it’s really worth bothering with, it’s only to go from where we are now at 90 back to 95. Take the spread off and you’re talking about four pips. I’m not scalping for four pips, it’s just a certain setup.

So at the moment, if we come back to the 30-minute chart then you’ll see that we’ve effectively just done a little bit of a double top. So it’s had that nice run but all we’ve done is come back to those overnight highs, so we need to see this push on through and see if it can properly get above 77.

So still sitting in this. I got in at 72 and 74 this morning and we’re sitting at 90 at the moment, but I really want to see if we can get that bit higher yet.

So we’ll carry on pressing pause. I’ve got a lot to do on Monday’s video, a bit of a rant on Monday’s video so look forward to that one. I think it’s the solstice today isn’t it? I think night and day are equal length so it’s the true beginning of spring today and the sun is shining, so that always puts you in a good mood, and it’s a Friday.

Right, it’s 12:10 and I’ve just realised I’m starting to run out of time. I don’t want to make this a huge video again, it’s long enough as it is at 18 minutes in. So what I’m going to do is call it a day here, but I’m not going to close out of these positions.

So we’re going to have to take a wrap as to where we are. Now bear in mind I’ve got that original position down from 25, I’ve got to move all these stops and get all these stops sorted out, I just left them all wide for now but I’m going to bring all those up.

So we’ll take a time check at the moment, I’m up £1500 or $2200 currently and we’re just going to have to see what’s going to happen. It may play around for the rest of the day and so I don’t want to keep on with this video update.

Like I said, I’m going to see if we can get into the 77s and then I’ll see what I can do with it then and maybe start offloading a little bit then, if we can get up there. If not then I might just hold on to it a little bit.

So that’s a wrap for today. A bit of a weird one as far as live trading. I put those two extra units in and so far they’re running okay but it would have been so much better if I’d have been around down here I would have put another couple of units in down there and we’d now be sitting on even better gains.

That’s just part and parcel of trading, you can’t always be there in front of your screens when something sets up.

Anyway, looking forward to doing the rant on Monday. Stay safe out there and enjoy your weekends.

2 Comments

  1. Dirk H.-Reply
    March 26, 2015 at 1:24 pm

    Hey Charlie,

    Ever since I saw you on TV, I followed your work and that from Kym.
    Thanks to both of you.
    Every Friday I take your post apart and analyse it in detail. So far I have learned a lot more on how to trade right. Some trades that you do, I would never enter, but since you have way more experience than I do that come to no suprise.
    The question that I have is the following:
    What times during the day do you trade? I know that you are not sitting the whole time in front of your monitor. I am living in Germany and adjusted to the time, I found that the best trading hours are between 7 am and 9 to 10 am, and again between 1pm and 3:30 pm.
    When do you trade or better said, when do you think is the best time to trade during the day?

    Thanks for your help and please continue with those videos.

    Regards
    Dirk H.

    • Charlie Burton-Reply
      March 26, 2015 at 1:54 pm

      Thanks Dirk. Yes those are the key timeframes I am generally trading within….

      Hope that helps.

      Charlie

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