Friday’s live trading – Charlie banks over $800 today…
Charlie trades this morning plus through the US CPI news…..
Hi this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading.
Looking at the Euro, it’s been coming up a little bit over night, as we can see. It’s hit the daily R1 pivot, but they’re fairly crunched together today so I’m not too concerned about that. I’s like to see if it can get up to that 1.1180 zone.
I’m just going to have a look and see where the pivots are, then I’ll come back to this.
So I just wanted to see where the projected 8am pivot was going to come in at. It’s coming in just a little bit lower than where we currently are, around 1.1151. So I’m actually going to start getting ready to buy.
I want to be a buyer here. Whether I’m going to be right I don’t know. We have positive momentum in the background and the market’s been going up, there’s potential for some more upside to run towards yesterday’s highs at a minimum.
So I am going to see if I can get into a lot. We’re getting down close to where that pivot is going to be in seven minutes. We’re right on top of it, just a couple of pips away. If it comes down I will be looking to buy in this zone.
I suspect it will over-shoot a bit. What I want to do is get four units in, but what I’ll do is get one unit in and then probably wait for the actual pivot to come into play. So we’ll see if we can get that unit in down at 51 by the looks of things.
Then I will gradually go in once we’ve got that 8am pivot physically come in. I’ll press pause for now.
Here it comes, finally looking like it’s nearly there. We’re sitting right above it…
…Okay, so I’ve got one unit in. Now I’m going to look to built this position. It could come down lower, like I said, but I wanted to have at least one position in, just in case.
For now I’m just going to be watching this as we approach 8am. It’s 7:55am, so I just want to see that pivot come in. We’ve come down to retest these prior highs and hopefully I can get the full four in. So that’s what I’m looking for. What if it doesn’t work out? Well then it doesn’t work out and we get stopped.
For now, we’re just waiting for the pivot to come in, then we’ll take it from there.
So far we’ve been coming up this morning, it’s just a case of whether we’re going to be able to continue that or not. I’ll press pause for a minute.
Okay, so it’s just 8am now, the pivots are just coming in. It is indeed around 1.1150 here. I will now get my second unit in. Really this is all I’m looking for, so I’ll get the third unit in, then I’ll get my fourth unit in.
Whether I’m going to be right or not I’m not entirely sure, I’ve got the scope to back away.
What I’ll do, I’ve got three units in, as we’re on the outside of the bands I’ll wait until we close back inside the bands and then I’ll put the fourth unit in.
I haven’t got all of the stops in yet. I’ve put the stops down at 32 for the first unit, so I’ll get the other two in.
So what I’ve done is put the stops just below this prior low at 32. I’s always possible when you get a day like today, where it’s undulating, that it could want to come down, maybe take that stop out, and then come all the way back up.
It’s just pulled back a little bit more, so I’m going to wait on the final unit. If I go in with the fourth unit right now, what I’d be thinking about is the next trade. So what you have to think about is, if I take this trade and it loses, can I then trade again today? Because of the stop-loss that I’m putting in today, which is the best part of 20 pips, that would be a 20 pip stop with four units, which is the best part of $800.
With this account, the challenge account that I trade off here, I can afford to trade at £1000 risk per day, but I don’t really want to trade at that amount of risk. If I can keep the risk a little bit lower, it means that if I do lose on this first trade, I can still have the opening to trade again. We have got USCPI figures out today, which could produce some half decent moves.
So I’m being a little bit more cautious here. I’ll just watch the price action and see if it can hold. I’ll just press pause for now.
One thing I will be able to do, if we do come back into the bands and I get that fourth unit in, is get my stops all the way up aggressively to very tight levels back up to below this low. Then we’ll have come down and hit some support of that pivot and the five-minute 50, so then I am much safer. Although I have that initial stop up here, in case it wants to play around and do an overshoot, but if it’s not going to do that and it holds here then the game changes quite quickly.
We’ve now done that, so we can now, on a little dip, put the fourth unit in. Now I can move my stops up. I’ll give them just a pip below that, but all of a sudden now, my stop is very tight.
We’re just sitting up now so I’m just waiting to see if I can get this fourth unit in, just as come down to test this lower band. There we go, now I need to move the positions over.
Now I’m going to move the stops up to about 45. Now that’s a lot tighter and obviously I could get stopped out. Let’s move them to 44.
The nice thing is that it’s reacted to these pivots, so hopefully that is the reaction and it’s not going to come down lower and then go up again. That’s always the risk when you do move your stops up.
It doesn’t have to come lower anymore, so let’s go back to this. We’ve put in a nice little reversal type candle but we’ll see. What I’m looking for this to do is to carry on playing around and then hopefully we can have a bit of a move up at some point.
We’ve got a little bit of news coming out on the Euro in just under an hour, but we’ll have to see how this is going to behave now.
I shall go and get myself some breakfast, if I get stopped out here fairly quickly then so be it, but at least my powder is fairly dry for going into the next tradebecause if I lose then I’ll only lose a couple of hundred now as opposed to £500 if it was a full stop out. I’ll press pause for now.
So as we can see, the Euro is having a little bit of a bounce here, so I can actually move my stop up another pip now to just below that low. It does seem to have stabilised so I can put them at 45.
What it does mean is that my stops are now at three, seven, six and six pips from my entry positions, so it’s all nice and relatively tight now. It will still cost if I get stopped out, but it’s kept relatively tight.
So how does this look? Actually it looks like it’s about to roll over. The eight and 21 look as if they’re about to cross and if they do then this thing is about to roll over.
We’ve got positive momentum but it’s one of those mornings where you’ve got positive momentum but it’s already had a half decent nice move and it may want to do a larger retracement. That’s the way that it was always looking, but at the same time, it had that potential to run up to 1.1180.
So it looks at the moment as if this eight and 21 are going to cross down. Usually when you get a cross there will be at least some sort of follow through, even if it doesn’t follow through too much. So I’ll just allow that to stop me out and ten reassess again for later.
Like I said, I think we’ve got some German news coming out at 9am, German IFO Business Climate, and Draghi speaking at 9am. Nothing too major there but it might be enough to move this euro a little bit. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay so just back, it’s one of those mornings… there’s always a funny thing when it comes to indicators, you have to be really careful if you rely on indicators specifically for taking trades, like moving average crossovers, because as you can see, back here when we had this red candle, the red had just about crossed the blue. So I was looking at it thinking that it’s more likely that we’re going to then rollover. What happens is you get a switchback and they uncross.
Anyway, as we’re coming up to 70 here I will look to take one unit off as we come up to the double top sort of are. So if we can get up there then I’ll take that one unit off.
Now I’ve come back on live it will probably slow up again. Ultimately I’d like to see 80, like I said earlier on. Always when you come up to a double top, it’s possible that it then struggles with that so I’ll take one unit off anyway… If we can just get there.
I’m looking at around about 70, so just a few pips beyond where we are, so let’s just see if we can have a little nudge up there. Now I’m back on the recording it will probably hang around because it wants to make my recording much longer…
We’re getting close but not quite there just yet. We just need a few more pips. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, what I’ve done here is just moved my stops up to 49. I’m just protecting the trade a little bit. It’s had a half decent pop, if it was to roll all the way over then we don’t want it to stop me out for a big loss.
It would be a pain if it comes down. Even now, it’s at the low end of daily target, in theory. Whilst you’re in a trade, a trade is a trade, you don’t base your trade on a daily target. You base your trade on the trade itself and the parameters within that trade.
Anyway, it’s now pulled back and maybe we are going to get that eight cross the 21 now, and maybe it will roll over. It’s had a nice little pop but it has come back down so maybe I am going to get stopped out after all. It looked like it might want to push on through.
The stops are close now, so whatever happens, the loss if I get stopped will just be a few pips. It’s a shame actually, it’s looking like we’re going to get that eight and 21 cross to the downside. I will have to press pause…
Okay, it looks like we’re about to hit that target so I’m getting the ticket ready. It’s just been taken. I put a limit order in anyway, so we’ve just hit that first target. I thought it was coming down but we’ve hit that 70.
It was 70 on the chart, I always put it a pip below. The main thing now is that the trade is paid for. So if this thing still rolls over, whatever happens, I won’t lose on the trade. That’s always a nice position to be in.
What we are now looking for is that 1.1180 zone. I’ve put orders in at 79 and I’ve left one open which I can make a decision on as we get there.
At 88 we’ve got an hourly 100 on my Esignal chart, if we can break out. We’ve still got to break out, but if we can break out and get to 80 and get that final bit run up to 88. I’m not looking for masses of run here today. From where we’ve got in, it’s still 30 pips if we can get to 80, then 88 would be 38 pips, so it’s still okay. I’m not looking for a massive run because I don’t have a view.
We’re against some resistance on the daily charts, I’m aware of that, hence why I’m not looking for anything too major. I think that’s it for now, I’ll press pause.
Okay, just back, I was upstairs brushing my teeth whilst getting ready and I see that the markets are moving. We’ve got the next limit orders at 79 so we’ll just see if it can break up there. There isn’t much to do other than watch it.
One thing I can do is move my stops up to about 55 now. If it was to just give up and roll over there’s no point in me having my stops at 49 anymore, I may as well have them that little bit higher as it’s trying to break. If it reverses from here then it’ll very quickly come down to that level anyway. so whatever happens I’ve got something locked in there.
So we’re just playing a waiting game really, to see if it can break out of if it’s going to carry on just sitting there. We’ve just had that bit of German IFO news out and I believe Draghi’s speaking so it’s just a case of whether we can break through or not.
There’s not much more for me to do, I’ve got those limit orders in. I shall put a limit order in at 84 on the final one. As you can see, it’s not powering on through. Usually when you get a nice big candle you usually get follow through, but at the moment, with a minute to go, it’s not exactly powering on through, but we’ll see. I’ll press pause for now.
Right, just back, and I have been stopped. We came down to 55, this could be really annoying if I’ve been stopped and it comes back up again. It’s not the sort of trade that I would want to try again for so we’ll just have to see what’s going to happen.
We’re up $175. You saw the PNL earlier on and I think it was up to £500 when we were up here. Sometimes a trader will really feel regret from being up so much, but that’s not what you’re trading for. You trade until you hit your targets. If you don’t hit your targets it comes back down and stops you out, you have to just accept that. Sometimes it hits your targets and other times it doesn’t.
What you have to do is manage your emotions, because what the markets do is try and teach you bad habits. Bad habits would be, not running your trade to where your targets are, because then you’re not trading properly according to your own plan. Just bare that one in mind.
So what we’ve got here is a bit of a buffer for this afternoon. What I’m going to do now is leave the trading alone. We’ve got some decent news coming out later. It doesn’t matter if this Euro comes up, you just have to accept that, sometimes that is the case. Even if I’d have moved my stop to 50 I probably would have got stopped out on the spread, so it was the right thing to do.
What I’m really looking at now is, where are we going to be this afternoon? The potential is actually that this Euro is going to start to roll over. When looking at the larger timeframes, we have hit resistance on the daily charts. We could come up and go a lot higher, but if we don’t and we do start rolling over this afternoon then there are some decent targets to the downside.
I’m going to stop talking and we’ll come back to this just a bit before 1:30pm when I’m trading with the traders in our trading room. I’ll press pause for now…
So I’m just back from the gym and it turns out the Euro did go up in the end. So it came down, nicked me out and then came back up. Even if I had only moved my stop up to 50 I’d still have got stopped out. It’s just one of those things.
Still up for the day, but it’s always a shame when you would have been up around £600 and pretty much done for the day whereas now I have to wait for the news. The other problem as well is that the Euro has had a good run here and the more that it’s had this run the more difficult that it is for it to run down this afternoon as it will have a lot further to go before everything turns over.
We will see, it’s only 10.50am at the moment and it’s decent news that’s coming out later. It may be that we don’t come down at all. If we hold up here then I may actually be looking for another long trade later on this afternoon but for now I’m going to leave it alone and we’ll be looking to trade again at 1.30pm.
Okay just back and it’s two minutes to go until the CPI figures come out. We had a nice run while I was down at the gym so I’m now just waiting to see the news. What I’m looking for is to see if the Euro is going to roll over.
What I’m looking to do if it spikes up a little bit into the 1.1182 zone if it then stabilises then I will go in with one or two units. Too short for a potential run back down. Why am I doing that?
It’s all based on the four hourly charts. We’re into a lot of resistance so the potential is that we’ll roll over. I don’t care what the news itself is going to be, the potential is the news could be slightly Dollar negative.
We’ve got the CAD CPI figures coming out as well so I’ll be watching USD-CAD off screen at the same time. I’m going to press pause for a second.
Let’s see where we’re going to go…
…we’re shooting down. I want to get in. I’ve got a short at 34 and I’m going to be looking to add in to this position.
It’s just come down to the hourly 50 so it’s hitting some support here but what I’m looking for is to see if we’ll get some follow through today, which will make a change because the last couple of days I’ve been trading in the afternoons we’ve had a move and a counter move and it’s come all the way back up. So let’s just see what’s going to happen here. I’ve shorted at 34, if we get a retracement then I’m going to be looking to add in to this position.
That’s where we are right now. We’ve come down into a support zone we’ve got some prior lows on the higher time frame charts so I want to see if I can add to this position but I’ve got to pause a little bit and maybe it will be on the next candle.
So I’m short at 34 and I’m looking for more positions. I see USD-CAD has gone up and I had a buy stop order to buy on USD-CAD, that was lucky I’d forgotten about that. USD-CAD has had a bit of a slippage here and has come straight out of its daily R1, so that’s having a good run as well.
I’m going to keep an eye on that and maybe do something with USD-CAD but at the moment my focus has to be on the EUR-USD.
This is a day where we have the potential on the EUR-USD to have a larger downward move pushing towards 1.1080, that would be lovely to see if we could get down to that zone. This is still early doors eventhough we’ve had a nice thrust I’m going to be looking to add to this position. I’ll press pause for now.
Just back, we’re coming up to the end of this five minute candle and we’re just holding down here for now, that’s good. I’m looking for more downside anyway. What I want to see is if I can get another entry in so I’m just watching to see if we can get that blip up to 1.1120, that might have to do now. It could go to 1.1130 but hopefully that’s it and then come back down. If I can’t get a position in then I’ll just hold on to this single unit and we’ll see if it can run down that little bit more.
I shall press pause for a second.
Okay so it didn’t quite get up to that level but we have had a little blip here so for now I’m just having to sit on this. I’m looking at 1.1080 so if I get that then that will have to do it.
I could take half off if we get down to 1.1080, we’ll have to see.
What I’ll have to do is keep the position, buy half and then see if we get a break this afternoon but we have to get down to that 80 zone first. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay if this does start to stabilise down here and we start bouncing around 1.11 then I will just bank half anyway but hopefully it can carry on breaking down. If it doesn’t, I will bank half because that’s a more responsible way on managing the trade. We haven’t got too far to go before I can close half.
My finger is on the trigger to take half. I’m going to take half here, I know I said 81 but there’s just too much support there. Look how much price action we’ve got here so I’ve had to take half there.
What I have effectively done is bought half of my position so I’m long with 50,000 and short with 100,000 which gives me a net of 50,000 so effectively I’m still short.
So we’ve got the profits from the USD-CAD and the profits from this morning and now it’s just a case of seeing where we’re going to go from here.
So it’s a half decent run at the moment. The other reason I took half is because I had spotted that USD-CAD had begun to stabilise a little bit.
As you’ll see, by taking half at 93, if we go up then I’ll start making money on the little long that I have done eventhough the 100,000 short retraces and does down a little bit.
I have probably confused everyone there but I’ll leave it at that for now. Let’s just see what’s going to happen.
We are bouncing, so far so good I’ve banked half and we’re not going to be able to lose on this trade now even if it did a big retracement, but if it does a large retracement I might want to trade this again. I don’t think this is over yet so I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, what I’m going to do right now is trail the stop down on the remainder to 1.1110 but I’m still looking…
…we’re breaking now so we’re getting closer to the target down there at 80.
Let’s bring up these tickets, one is going to be in profit, one is going to be in loss but we’re making more money overall because we’re still net short.
We’re getting close we’re right on yesterday’s lows, it we can get down to those I’m going to close out. I was going to move my stop down but I think we’re getting very close.
I’m watching off screen, people ask what chart package I’m using off screen, it’s generally Esignal but I use Telecharts for projecting the video.
If we get to 84 that will probably do it and then I’ll be looking to reposition.
Here we go, I’m closing out here.
Okay so now I’m net flat. What we did is make £328 on the short so we are now net £465 plus £69 so we are up £500 odd for the day which for that account is the target so I don’t have to trade.
On this challenge account you guys have asked me to trade for income so that’s now more than hit its daily target but it’s still looking quite nice and I’m quite liking the price action here today. There could be another trade.
What I’ll have to do now is be responsible with my trading and downsize. So I’ll now trade in 50,000 increments to protect the profits that I’ve got. I’ll be happy enough to risk some of those profits but I must protect them.
We’ve hit yesterday’s lows so what I’m looking for is for this to settle for maybe an hour or so and see if we can get another break later. That’s what I’d like to see but for now we’ll just watch this. As you can see we’re bouncing back up now, you can never get a pin point exit.
In fact, this video is 34 minutes in and I’m talking to the guys in the trading room so what I’m going to do is carry on trading with the guys in the trading room but I’m going to finish this video now because it’s more than long enough.
As you can see we’ve hit the target for today, whatever happens I won’t give all of that back even if I do have a small loss later. For now have a great long weekend, it’s a bank holiday weekend so I won’t be doing a video on Monday and we’ll be back in touch next week.