Friday’s live trading – Charlie smashes it through to $1800 today…
Charlie has a great trade on the Euro this morning but it’s the mindset he discusses which is all important on trades like this….
Hi this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading. I hope you’re very well.
It’s actually a little bit earlier than I’m normally up because I’m in here with the trading room guys, it’s just after 7am.
I’m just having a look at the markets and it could well be that I’m looking to short the euro this morning.
It’s a little bit on the early side, but what I’ve been noticing of late is that the markets have sometimes been taking off a bit earlier and having moves earlier, prior to 7:30 – 7:45am.
I want to keep an eye on this but at the same time I want to sort myself out and get ready so I can sit here and chat to the guys in the trading room. So I shall press pause for now and come back and have a look at this.
Just back. I’m actually going to initiate a short right here.
So I’ve just gone short at 28 with one lot and I’m going to put a stop up at 48. If it does start to break down this morning then I’ll add to the position after 7:30am, but I wanted to be in a little bit earlier here, just in case it starts to break while I’m off getting ready.
So at the moment, we’ve got a market which is just looking a bit weak, but it’s a bit early, so you can never know for certain. Hence why I’m keeping the risk low for now. So if I get stopped out on this then I’m still in the game, and if the volumes pick up after 7:30-8am then it’s not going to affect me too much.
That’s where I am, I have a stop in at 48 and I’ll come back to this…
Right, just back. I’m going to get this second unit in. It’s basically against this 8am pivot but there’s a little bit higher up here, against this white line, my five minute 50, so I’m going to put a third unit there. Then I’ll be putting my stops up there together and we’ll see how this is going to go.
We could be doing a big reversal, but we’ve had a little bit of negative momentum come in, and if this is just a retrace before coming back down, then this will all be fine.
One thing that I’m watching off screen is GBP-USD. That’s actually pretty strong so far this morning, it’s holding up relatively well in its overall trend and it’s possible that the pound is going to go for a break out. If that is the case then we could see the Euro push up here, which will see me getting stopped out.
So we’ll have to see. So far, we’ve just come up to that pivot. I’m very well aware that there’s been some divergences off of these lows, which have helped push this EUR-USD up, but I’m seeing something on the bigger time frames that gives it potential and we’ve got a smidgen of negative momentum that has come in on the hourly charts.
We’ll see how this is going to play out. It could just be that it’s going to chop. My only concern if it’s going to chop is that I could get stopped out up here and it still rolls over, which could be a real pain.
That’s where we are at the moment, I’m going to see if I can get a third unit in if we come up to that five minute 50. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, so I’m going to get this final short unit in.
I’m talking to the guys in the trading room and they were saying, you don’t need to go in with three units because if it’s going to work out there’ll be more than enough points in this because of the targets I’ve got in play today. That’s why I’m only going in with three, not four.
The entries are 28, 34, and 42. If I get stopped out I’ll probably lose between £200-£300. So that’s where we’re at. There’s not a lot more to do, this is just a case of seeing if it will play out.
If this does come up and stop me out, I have a plan be for today, but I’ll discuss that with you a little bit later. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, just back. I’ve been chatting with the guys in the trading room all morning – I say morning, it’s only 9:05am. We’ve got up to that five minute 50 where I got my third unit in. It got close to my stop and so far it’s rolled over, but it’s still early days. We still need to get that defined break of these lows.
Let’s have a look at the account as it stands. Although it’s doing okay as far as the run is concerned, sometimes a trade like this, you might already be loosening off and taking some profit, but other times you’re seeing the bigger picture and it doesn’t warrant taking profits at this stage.
I’m still willing to still have my stops up there not having banked anything, even though this market could still come back up and stop me out and I’d have a loss of £200 odd.
This is all based on that bigger timeframe that I’ve been looking at this morning. The approach that you have should be based on the markets for that particular day.
At the moment, what I’m looking for is if we can get a break of these lows and if we can start to break then that will be a good starting point. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, we can see that the Euro’s broken down a little bit now. What I need to do is move these stops a little bit. They were up at 48, so I’m going to move them down to 42, and hopefully that’s still giving it enough room to breathe because it’s been fairly oscillating this EUR-USD.
Yes it’s broken down but I still want to give it that room to breathe, so I won’t lose more than £200 if it stops me out.
We’ve had a really good discussion in the trading room this morning. If you trail your stop down too aggressively then I could end up getting stopped out. There’s nothing wrong with that and sometimes, depending on the type of trade, you would trail your stop aggressively.
This isn’t one of those trades because I’m trying to give it that bigger slack because I’ve seen the potential for a bigger move. So you have to give it room to breathe.
The other really good question was, Charlie your account on the challenge account is up at its daily target, would you bank your profits because you’re at daily profit target? In theory I could close out now and then be done for the day.
That’s a limiting factor. You never base taking profits on whether you’ve hit your daily target or not. You base taking your profits on the trade and the targets you have on the trade that you’ve taken.
Only afterwards, let’s say that I’d hit a load of targets, then fine. So if I hit my targets on the trade and I’m up £427 then yes, I no longer need to trade today, but whilst the trade’s still running we don’t know whether it’s going to become an £800 trade.
For all I know this is going to come back and stop me out for minus £200. It’s just a trade at the moment that has not played itself out.
I’m still looking at that sub 1.12 that it’s got to get to in the 1.1180s, so that’s where the first target is. It’s still got a lot of work to do.
So for now I’m going to move these stops and press pause.
Just back, the EUR-USD is breaking down somewhat now, we’re getting closer to the targets, so we’re getting closer to taking some profits off here.
I’m watching as we’re coming into the low 90s. So if we can get this break and get down there then we’re getting closer towards that first target. I will come out into the 80s.
There we go, taken that first target. I’ve just closed out at 87 for £950.
This is a really good example today of holding on to the winners.
I’m bringing up the second deal ticket because we’re getting down to that daily S1 pivot which is where I’ll be taking that second profit off, down in the mid 70s.
Here we go, we’re getting closer. I’m just holding off to see if we can get that little bit lower. It’s just a little bit above that pivot, I’m not too fussed about getting exactly there.
Here we go, closing out here at 73. So we’ve now got two of those profits banked. Now we’re in.
Now I can finally start to trail that stop down to 1.1228 on this final portion.
Then I’m going to want to go into this, because we’ve got some levels a bit lower so I need to have a look at those.
So whatever happens, I’ve banked about £700, even if it comes all the way back up and stops me out.
This is why it’s been a fascinating move. It’s been a long time coming.
What I’m going to do is take a half of the final portion off… Actually, we’re down to my lower bands, so I’m going to take this down to a quarter.
What I’ve done is effectively put myself net short 50,000. If it carries on going lower then that’s great, that’s what I’d rather have, but I’ve protected that because we’ve hit the daily lower band.
I’m looking towards 1.1120 as a final target.
Let’s go over this again. We’ve gone through a whole morning since I shorted. I put the first unit in just after 7am and we’ve had to sit through all of this chop. It’s been a fascinating psychological story here today talking to the guys in the trading room. We’ve got some newer guys in the room. Some of them panicked themselves out and took profits and now I’m sure they’ll be kicking themselves.
It doesn’t matter if I’m taking a trade, people still do their own thing and that’s fine, but it was all about trying to hold on to your trading plan, that’s what we’d been discussing.
Even just until 10 minutes ago the market was still coming up and I was saying to the guys that it could come up and stop me out and I’ll still have a losing day, but you have to stick to your plan. Then, all of a sudden, out of nowhere, then it plummets.
This is the difference, by sticking to your trading plan, I could have taken profits for £400 but that was £400 and sometimes you get the days that pay out, now I’m up £1200.
We don’t know yet because this could still come all the way back up and stop me, but whatever happens I’ve made £750, even if it can’t extend down to that 1.1130 zone.
So a really good psychological trade here today, and I can’t always find these bigger moves, but right from the off today it’s always been about looking for this bigger move on the Euro.
I spotted it on the daily charts early this morning and then we just had to sit through it. It was a bit uncertain for a while but you have to stick to that analysis. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, just back. I’m going to have to call this a wrap, I’m flying off to Dublin so I’m going to have to put orders in for my final bits.
The Euro’s had this good run, we’re at $1800 this morning and it’s not going to change too much from that. I’ve trailed my stops down to 1.1210 and I’ve only got a quarter position left on this anyway. it’s ended up being a really nice run.
If it carries on running down then I have a target down at 1.1130, just a bit above my daily level that I was looking at. If it gets down to there, then we’ll be up over $2000.
I have to leave it at that, have a great weekend and we’ll be back in touch next week.