Friday’s live trading – Charlie wins again….
Just the one trade today but a good example of delayed gratification for traders….
Hi this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading. It’s 7:45am and I’m looking to go short on AUD.
Okay so I have two units in on AUD. It’s all very rushed because I’ve spotted the AUD coming down a bit. I can see something in the bigger picture that might be building for the day.
It’s got negative momentum in the background so I’m going to see where it may want to go. There’s some potential.
I’ve got two units in so far. If we have another blip up I’ll go in with another two. The stops don’t have to be too wide from where we are about 12 or 13 pips. So I will be going in with four units if it allows me to.
Overall these markets are very quiet. Cable is very static so the markets could move around a bit if any news comes out. At least the AUD has a little bit more direction in it but I don’t have much interest in the Euro or Cable.
For now I’ll press pause.
Okay just back, this AUD did push down to the prior day’s lows, which is a typical support zone and it’s having a nice bounce off that.
So we were up 10 pips at one point but that wasn’t what I was looking for as a target. Sometimes you look at a market and this is a good example of how two traders could go into the same trade and have entirely different results.
For example, I got that short in here which ran down to 96. Trader A elects not to take the profit in anticipation of the bigger move. Trader B actually decided to take a partial profit although it’s not a lot and moves their stop down to break even.
So trader B will have been stopped out but has a slight profit for that trade whereas trader A is still sitting in the trade and could potentially take a loss if it comes all the way back up. Different traders trading the same things can have entirely different results.
It’s not going to be a big loss if it does go up today but I’m giving it a go, seeing if we can get a bigger move on the AUD. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Could it come up and stop me out and then roll over? Yes it could and that’s a bit of a concern. I could have put my stop higher but then my risk reward is decreasing. It would just about be okay if I had my stop at 30 but it’s not how I planned making this trade so I’m not going to change my stops. I’d rather get stopped out and then readdress what the markets are doing.
We’ll have to see. I’ll press pause and come back to this.
Okay just back, it’s 10:30am. I’ve got to head out for a couple of hours. We’ve been having a good chat in the trading room because not much is happening in the markets today. Everyone’s waiting for this Euro news so they’ve been very dull.
I’m going out so I need to put limit orders in. My first is at 85 and the second target I have is down at 65. I might have a quick look to see if we can adjust the stops. I’m going to move the stops down to 13. There’s not much else I can do. I’m not moving the stops down to break even, there’s still plenty of room but we are down to an eight pip stop.
What is here on the AUD is a nice trend line going across the four hour chart. We have the weekly lower bands down in the 60s where my second target is.
I could still lose on this trade but if it runs it will end up being something of a trade. Slow markets today so I’m keeping it fairly safe. I’ll leave you with that and press pause.
Just back, we’ve hit the trend line but we haven’t quite hit my order. I’m overriding it, it’s only a pip away but I want to bank that first unit. What I now need to do is decide what to do with my stop on the remaining part of this trade.
It needs to come down to at least break even. The thing with the AUD is that it’s come down nicely but it’s fairly steady. It would be great if it could break down into the 7660s where my second order is but if it wanted to have a retracement it could easily come back to the 7710s.
I’m going to trail that stop down to 7704 so what does happen if it does come back up and stop me out I’ll end up making a profit anyway. Obviously I could take more off but like I said earlier, I could have taken profits at 10 pips but we held on and it’s come good.
This is where your higher time frame analysis comes in. It’s not always the right thing to do to take the 10 pips. It’s not always the right thing to do to try and run a trade.
I’ve got my stop at 7704 I could probably move it to 7701 and have it just above the round number in case we come up to the round number. Hopefully it can carry on breaking but it has been a very dull day.
I’m looking at the Euro off screen and it hasn’t done too much. It’s very choppy price behaviour. There was a little move here but overall on the hourly chart it’s not something that I want to get involved in. At least the AUD has had a bit more of a move.
So I have my stop at 7701 and my limit order at 65 so we’ll just see if it can get down there. If it can break then I will start to trail the stop a bit. We’ll have to wait and see.
It’s just come down to hit my original levels but I didn’t mind taking it early for the sake of a pip and a half.
The other thing I would like to mention is the delayed gratification part of trading. Sometimes it doesn’t matter if you’re a day trader or a swing trader, you always have those trades where you want to get into it and it powers on and you’re immediately into profit. Obviously you don’t want to have to sit through a draw down; you want it to start running in your direction straight away but sometimes it takes a long time to roll down towards your targets.
That is the delayed gratification where we have to be able to sit on our hands and let the market do its thing until it reaches our levels.
This has broken down to those lows that I was talking about so I can now move the stop down to 98. I’m trying to give it a little bit of slack while locking in gains as well. I better press pause.
We’re back and it’s started to really break down, we’re really getting close to our support levels down at 60 so I’m going to start really aggressively trailing this stop down to 77. We’re sitting on a load of support on the daily pivots so we’re about there. I’m just going to see if we can get down to that level.
Now I’ve come on the mic it will probably go shy.
So we’re at that stage where we trail a stop down aggressively. Sometimes you see nice big candles forming so hopefully we can get that. The momentum looks good so hopefully we can get an extension here. It is against a load of support, the daily S2 so we’ll see if we can get that extra few pips out.
What I am doing is aggressively trailing my stop down so on the close of this bar I’ll be looking to move that stop down even more.
I’m literally looking for excuses to trail the stop down. We are now three pips away from my target at 65 so from a risk reward perspective I risked about 12 pips to make 40 pips on a second half and it was 18 and a half on that first unit. So it doesn’t matter where I get stopped out as I’m trailing aggressively.
I know we’re right there at support but at the same time momentum is growing to the downside and if I had a much bigger view, potentially it could go even lower but I don’t so I’ll take it for 40 pips if I can get them.
Stop at 77 so I’m locking in 30 pips on this move to see if it can have that final push or if it’ll blip up and stop me out. I’ll press pause for now.
Just back, we’ve had another little candle so I’m moving my stop right down. We’ve right on top of my limit order so we’re going to see if it can get there or go a few pips up to my stop. Either way it makes no difference. It’s ended up being an okay trade since it’s been such a quiet day today.
I was talking to the guys in the trading room about my trades yesterday and I took 80 pips out of those but they were small lot trades yet they made a nice comfortable profit for the day so it just proves that if the pips are there you don’t have to be trading large sizes to get your profits. Anyway I’ll press pause for now.
There we go it’s hit my limit order. There we are, we banked just under $600 today of a two lot trade. Not bad but it took a lot of patience from getting in at 7:30am. Didn’t bother entering anymore positions when it came back up and at one point I thought it would come up and stop me out and it’s just been meandering and slow.
There was two exits, one at the trend line and one at my lower weekly bands so it’s not been a bad one, who knows, the AUD may continue to go lower. It was a good risk to reward trade.
I thought it was going to be a shorter video this week, unfortunately it’s 20 minutes so I’ll leave it at that. Have a great weekend and we’ll be back in touch next week.