Friday’s live trading – Charlie’s up $3200 so far….
Charlie trades Euro this morning but he is also a dim wit and after about 6 mins in he muted his microphone! Sound comes back later on after he realised his mistake! You will still see what he was doing!
This is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading, I hope you’re very well. I’m just watching the markets here this morning. Obviously it’s nonfarm payroll day and so as a result we could just see a lot of choppy trading this morning and not a lot going on. The Euro looks like it’s having a nice run down, but if we put it into perspective, on the hourly chart, it’s not really too much and not that clear right now. It could come lower.
We’ve got divergences here and we’ve got an 8am pivot that’s just come in above at 56 from 48, it’s hardly worth even trading but I guess I could give that a go… No I can’t, there’s not enough meat on the bone, even though we’ve got a little bit of a divergence to go from 50 to 56, and it’s just not worth it as far as the pips are concerned.
So what I’ll be looking to do is, even though we’re coming down a bit at the moment, overall the trend has been up and it wouldn’t surprise me if we keep chopping a little bit on the higher timeframe, at least meandering our way. I think at some point today the Euro is going to come down lower, but right now, this morning it wouldn’t surprise me if we get a little bit of a bounce back up. It’s just a little after 8 o’clock, so what I’m going to do, we’ve got a little divergence down here, between this low here and where we are down here, so if we close back inside the bands then I’ll look to see if I can get back on the long side for that little bounce up toward 56, that four hour pivot at one 1456 there. So I’ll just wait to see if we can close inside the bands.
So we’re just coming in to close this five minutes… And it’s barely closed inside. So I’m going to wait for now, I’m not feeling that much love for this trade so I don’t really want to risk it just yet. So I’m just going to wait and see if we dip back down. If we dip back down and then come back into the bands again then I’ll look at going in again. The potential is for the Euro to return to that daily pivot, which is down below down at one 1426. So we’ve got this small divergence there, but I’m just being patient, I want to see what the price action is going to be. If it just goes straight up from here then I miss out in the trade. I’m not that fussed this morning in light of the fact that we’ve got nonfarm payrolls later anyway, so we’ll just see.
Okay, so as we can see I’ve missed out on this one because it’s just gone straight up. The target is still 56 but it’s obviously gone way too far now. I will press pause and come back to this and find a trade at some point today.
Okay, just back, and as we can see the Euro’s having a nice run up here at the moment, but what it’s doing is having a nice little run here and I’m just wondering whether this might actually be a complete fake out, it’s just coming back to reach the six hourly 21 before it rolls back into this whole range again. So what I’m going to do is I’m going to put a short on right here with a very tight stop and we’ll then just see. So I’ll put the four units in just as we’ve come into the five minute 21 there, I’m going to put a really tight stop on behind it and if it doesn’t work out I’ll be out very quickly. I haven’t even stopped talking and it’s still going higher, so I’ll just get these stops sorted out.
I’m just bringing the orders up off screen at the moment because I’ve got swing positions in at the moment which I don’t really want to show you, so let’s get these stops in. So what I was going to do is put the put the stop in at 72, I was in at 65 so 72. One 1472 and so on, let’s get these other ones done, one 1472… I’ll go through a little bit more of why I’ve done what I’ve done; partly because I’m expecting this market to sort of chop around really and not get too much of a direction on. The potential is for the Euro to come all the way down to its daily pivot which is down at 26. So as we’ve come up there, we’ve come up to the hourly, it’s really about the hourly chart. So we’ve come up to the upper band on the hourly, just as I shorted that, and as you can see it’s also come up to the hourly 21, surpassed it slightly, it doesn’t look quite that way on the e-signal, the e-signal 21 is a little bit higher. So just as we’ve hit those little bits of resistance there I’ve just shorted it. So what I may do is if we close back inside the bands I could move my stop down to 70 having got in at 65, we’re at 64 at the moment.
I’m just looking to see, even if it wants to roll over it may just hold up here and play around for a bit and hopefully I don’t get wiggled out if it wants to come and take the stops out from up here, which is possible, so I’ve just tried it with a very tight stop and it’s going to be the only trade I try this morning, because then I’m going down the gym. If it starts to roll over then so be it. Once I see it start to move, if it does start to roll over and it doesn’t come up and stop me out, then I’ll just set up some orders, head down the gym and see where we are once I get back.
For now I’ll just sit here and wait and see what it’s doing initially here and then we’ll take it from there.
Just back, let’s have a look at this Euro. It’s got close to the daily pivot but it’s not quite got there so what I need to do is trail that stop down a little bit now. Just got back in from the gym.
I can certainly afford to move it down to below break even, I may even move down to 55 and just see what happens here, it could just chop around now as it’s not quite got down to the pivot, we’ll see. Hopefully it can roll over from here but I don’t know, it’s not the first time it’s touched that band. Let’s bring up the stops first on this last one. So obviously the second time it got hit at 45 so that’s good, so I’ll show you all that in a minute, so let’s move this stop down to 55 on the last bit. So still giving it lots of slack really but I can see that the Pound off screen is holding up quite well, so if we go and have a look at the Pound Dollar then we can see that one’s doing quite well by comparison, so if we go back to the Euro Dollar here… Obviously, I’d like to see it get down and hit that daily pivot, it could be that we have to wait now for several hours.
It’s just gone 11 o’clock and it could just chop around for several hours before getting down there, but you never know. So let’s have a look at the accounts. We can see that here we’ve got £400 in open position so you can see it’s moving, £400, £401, we’ve got this final position left which is showing at £168 £169 at the moment, the other three have got banked at £51, £49 and £131.
This is the final position, but overall you can see that for today if I was to close this out now I’d be $600 plus $1600 plus $900 in open positions as well so it would be about $3000 if I was about to close it right now, but obviously that’s not the case, so we’ll see what happens.
For now whatever happens on this trade it will make £300, let’s call it, so it’s okay considering I’ve not been around much. So we caught it nicely there this morning, it ran down. To take that initial profit off at the bands here… Let’s take this back a little bit, the reasons to take the profit there, that’s the first test of my bands down here, and it’s always possible that this is just a retracement at that point, because we’ve been going up it just wants to do a retracement to then go up higher again, hence why take the profits off there. Obviously I was looking for it to reverse, but I knew the potential was that the flip side is that it could always want to come all the way back up again, so that’s why I took the profits off there. Then I fully expect it to chop around for a bit, so then it can start to loop around. I never expect it to go straight down, so it obviously took its time and then has eventually rolled down. That was the plan. It all came from my flush move this morning; it’s the flush that I know that the guys in the trading room know, so it was a flush move today based on that hourly chart. Anyway, I shall press pause and we’ll come back to this.
Right, just back. What I’m going to do is trail this stop down aggressively now because I really want to get this trade over and done with so I can get the video finished. So hopefully it just comes down from here, I don’t know if it’s going to. So let’s get this stop trailed down to 44 and so whatever happens hopefully we can get out of this relatively soon. Let’s bring up the deal ticket so you can see the PNL of the actual ticket itself. So whatever happens now I’ve locked in £380, something like that I think on the total trade, something like $550.
The thing with trading though is, it’s about having a plan. So you try to get a top down approach as much as possible, see what’s going on with the bigger picture first and then drill it down to the smaller picture. I get a lot of questions come through from people saying, do you just use five minute charts, because that’s what I’m always projecting? But you’re only seeing one chart here, what I’m looking at off screen is a load of different time frames in order for me to build a picture of what I think might well happen, then that hopefully helps me to put the odds in my favour.
I’d always encourage you to not just be one dimensional, to always use different time frames to try and get a picture of what’s going on, use the bigger time frames to see what you’re seeing there and if you’re seeing resistance being hit on the bigger time frames, drill it down to the smaller time frames to see if there may be an entry if like today we had negative momentum on the hourly charts as well, so there was other factors in place. Always a top down approach would be my advice on that. Outside of that, you don’t need to be sat there, how many times do I do these videos on a Friday when I try and get into a trade and then I go off down to the gym? It happens all the time.
There’s no point in sitting there in front of the screens, put orders in and see how it gets on. Don’t get me wrong, I’m always keeping an eye on the markets while I’m in the gym, but if I’ve got orders in place I don’t really have to do too much.
Now as we can see this is coming down a little bit more, so I’ll move the stop down to 43. So hopefully it can just start running down here. The pip that’s not too far below us at 26, that’s where the order is. Actually I’ve put the order at 26 but that’s on e-signal it’s 26 which actually means it’s on 27, oops… Let’s move that just a pip above that, so I’ve moved the target order down to 28 which is just above the pivot then because e-signal’s pivots are always about a pip or so out, so they’re a bit below the actual price. Okay so I had better press pause, we’ve got a nice long one today at 19 minutes so far.
One other thing, music; always a good thing to have on in the background while you’re trading. A bit of Josh Groban on a Friday morning, can’t beat that.
Just back, and as we can see I’ve been stopped out on that remainder of the Euro trade. I still think we’ve got good odds of slamming down a bit this afternoon but you never know. Let’s bring up the accounts so we’re all done now, thank god. At the moment we banked $483 on that in total this morning on that Euro trade, or£328, open positions of $1200 and obviously I’ve still got that $1068 open position down there which isn’t moving because I’ve got it hedged. Let’s see if I can open it up a little bit.
There you go, you can see the positions now down here, like I said they’re hedged. So you can see they’re moving around within it but the total PNL’s not moving because I’ve got this hedged. So at some point I will release the hedge or just close it all out and bank the lot, or just release the hedge, or whatever I decide to do.
Whatever happens, if I want to close it all out then I’ll just bank that. So not a bad day, so for now $1200 plus $1600, so $2800 plus $580, so $3300 easily if I wanted to close all up now.
Not a bad morning but part of that is obviously from trades I put on a couple of days ago. That’s it for now, have a great weekend, stay safe on nonfarm payrolls and we’ll see you next week.