Friday’s live trading – Several trades for a small gain…
Charlie takes a number of trades today but in the end only makes a small gain of $150 – sometimes that’s the way it is!
Hi this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading. I hope you’re very well.
It is nonfarm payrolls today and it’s just coming up to 8am.
I’m having a look at cable and seeing that it’s had a bit of a flush down earlier this morning and has been consolidating for the last half hour, but it’s got the potential for a little short trade if we get a retracement. I’m keeping my eye out for retracement zones.
Also having a look at the USD-YEN as well. I’ve just got to wait and see if these markets set up.
The Pound needs to rally up to about 1.5345 before I’ll consider that one. It doesn’t have to do that, as we can see, it’s breaking already. Maybe I missed that but there was nothing I could do there, this wasn’t a first test of my bands or anything like that.
I’m not in a rush to get anything this morning because quite often on nonfarm payroll day, it can be a bit choppy in the morning, so I don’t want to get chopped up. So I’ll try and be selective this morning, and if needs be then I’ll just carry on the recording until 1:30pm for the nonfarm payrolls.
I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, the Euro’s been having a little run up here. It’s got the potential to get up to its daily pivot, which it hasn’t quite hit yet. I could potentially play this really tight and if it works out then fine, but if it doesn’t then I’m not going to have a big risk on it.
I’ll get two units in there. I’ll see if I can get another couple of units in if we come down a little bit more. The stops going to be about 55 because we’ve got an untested 8am pivot below so really I don’t want it overshooting this zone too much.
I’m just going to get my stops in and see if we can get another couple of units in.
It’s a game of two halves here at the moment in that I can see the potential for the Euro to have a bit more of a run up. It’s got some positive momentum behind it, but there’s a couple of factors I don’t like on here at the moment. We’ve got a downward sloping hourly 21 MA. Sometimes if the hourly 21 is sloping away from where the price is going the ultimately the price may actually come back down.
But we have some positive momentum and a daily pivot above at about 75. So it’s always possible that we have a bit more of a push up to there.
I’ll press pause for now and we’ll see what happens…
Okay, so it is coming down a bit. I’m going to put those two units in and they’ll literally have a two pip stop.
Really tight here and it looks like I could get stopped very quickly… I have been stopped on three of those units. The last one, I hadn’t even got the stop in. This last unit will probably gets topped as well.
I’ve traded it really tight here because of that potential to come down.
I want to have a quick look at USD-JPY, because that’s starting to move…
…Yes, I want to be in on this USD-JPY, so let’s give that one a shoot. I’ve been wanting to be long on this USD-JPY and it’s having a little run here, so we’ll see if I can get something out of this, even though the Euro’s losing.
I’ve just put one unit in so far. I don’t like having to pay top dollar there so I’ve just put one unit in. I’ll see if I can get a second unit in at 60. I’ve got two in now.
I have been stopped out of that EUR-USD. It was a total stop out, minus 147 on the EUR-USD.
Now I’m in on this USD-JPY and that’s got positive momentum as well. The USD-JPY has an untested pivot below. So I was looking for the Euro to go up to that pivot, and the Yen I’m looking to go down.
There are arguments for both ways today.
I’ve got two units in so I think I might just keep it at two for now. 1.2468 is yesterday’s highs but we’ve got the potential for a breakout beyond that, so I’m just going to sit on this for now.
It’s a shame, it’s not been set up exactly how I would have liked it. We’ve got untested levels which can sometimes drag a market back down. I’m going to leave it at these two units and put a stop in the low 50s and we’ll see how we go from there. I’ll press pause.
Okay, so as we can see, it’s getting close to that level I was looking at, 68, which is yesterday’s high. I’d like to see it breakout, it’s just a consideration of whether to take half profit or not. Only eight pips doesn’t feel like enough. If we did a slight overshoot to 70 then I could get ten pips out of it, then I might take half and just trail the stop up and see what we can get with the remainder.
82 would be the next area of resistance. I’ll keep an eye on this and I’ll start trailing the stop up a little bit.
It was definitely the right thing to do, to have a tight stop on the Euro. Sometimes when you’re looking at a chart, you can tell that it’s either got to go from there and do hardly much of a pullback or there’s no point in being in it. So it was the right thing to have that tight stop. It was one of those cases where it just had to go and if it isn’t going to, you don’t bother having a wide stop.
I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, so it’s just hit that 70 zone. I put a limit order in to take half. It’s not a lot, only 10 pips on that first half, and we’re just going to have to see if this can push on through and carry on.
It’s a shame I couldn’t get four units in, but it felt like I was paying top dollar at that point. What I always look for is a little dip and we didn’t quite get it.
As it currently stands, we are into resistance. We’ve hit yesterday’s highs. Having said that, on the hourly chart, we have some levels at 80 and beyond that to 125. I think if we can get to 80 then that will probably be enough for this one. We shall see.
It’s got a bit of work to do, I don’t know if it’s going to get up that far. What I will do, is move that stop up some more to about breakeven.
We’ll just see for now, there’s not a lot more to do with this. Some days you’d look at this and say, okay actually it’s having a good run, now it’s doing a little pullback should I be looking to add to this position? My only concern is that it’s nonfarm payroll day and are these markets going to only run so far and then start to chop. So I’m not looking to build too much of a position here this morning.
Whatever happens, I’ll make about £40 on this, even if it does come down and stop me out, which will just eat into the small loss that I had anyway. so I’ll be down about £100 for the day going into nonfarm payrolls, which is fine by me.
I’ll press pause for now.
Just back. What I’ve done is trail the stop up to 62 now, so we’ll get stopped out at 61 if it comes down, but if it goes up to 80 then I’ve put in an order to effectively close half of the position, then we’ll see if it can still run beyond that.
So if it gets up to 80 then it will close another half of the position. What will happen is that a fresh order will come in which will be a sell order. We’re currently long on this 100,000 and a sell order will come in for 50,000, effectively closing half of this. That’s the way I have to do it on this account.
It’s just sitting here at the moment, it’s hard to say what it will do. The markets are a bit funny this morning. The Euro is all over the place but USD-JPY and USD-CAD are both having half decent runs. Hopefully we can carry on running…
Okay, just back. We’ve just hit that 80 level. I had that order in to short 50,000, so that’s just triggered.
So as it stands, the loss that I had on four lots this morning have been made back with just two lots on this trade, if I close out now. Obviously that’s not what I’m looking to do, I still want to see if I can get some more out of this. What I need to do is get these stops sorted out.
I don’t need to put a stop against the short because I just keep running that up until I close out of the other position, but I do need to put a limit order in at the same level as my stop on the long one.
So we’ve hit that resistance, hopefully it can hold up. My stop’s relatively tight at 64. At some point, this is going to carve its way into a range, and if that happens then I could just get stopped out. Sometimes you get lucky and they don’t and you just carry on in a nice wavy type of trend. So we’ll just see if that can be the case.
I might move my stop to 65 but other than that, I’ll leave it for now.
Okay, I’ve just got in from the gym, and as I’ve been sat here it’s finally come down and just stopped me out at 64. So that’s where we are for the day, I’m down a whopping £37 for the day, so far.
Obviously it’s all about the big one, the nonfarm payrolls. It’s 12:30pm now, so I’ve got an hour to go, so I’ll come back to this.
Right, just back. We’re just a couple of minutes away from nonfarm payrolls.
What I’m looking to do is trade USD-CAD on the long side, if it does start breaking up. Potentially Cable on the short side, and maybe even the Euro on the short side, if they break.
It really depends on how they’re going to move. I’ve got my deal ticket ready on the USD-CAD but I want to be able to see as much of my screen as possible so I’ll have it in the corner. I’ll probably do a lot of switching around as well as I’m trying to keep up on everything.
We have two minutes, so I’ll pause for now…
Okay, we’re going down on USD-CAD, ignore everything I was talking about with regards to… No we’re not, we’re coming back up. If that goes then we’re going in. I’ve just got long at 29 on USD-CAD. We’re at 47 now.
What I want to do is see this lock in.
I can see that Cable has come down, that’s fantastic.
Euro’s come down as well off screen.
What I need to make sure is that we’re actually going to follow through. I can see the potential for this to follow through, but I don’t know yet. I’m going to have a look and see what the actual figures are.
Yes, they’ve come out slightly stronger, 280,00 versus 226,000 predicted. So hopefully we can hold on to this for the USD and we don’t come down and do a reversal.
I don’t even have my stops in yet, so I better get this sorted out on USD-CAD. Oh, I’ve just been stopped out, I did have a stop in. Sorry guys, I had a stop in.
I may well go back in, this is just volatility at the moment so this could still go back up again. I got stopped out at 00 for 28 pips.
This is the thing with nonfarm payrolls, the volatility can go both ways.
USD-JPY has broken higher, that’s fantastic. I could well be trading this USD-JPY then. I’ll look off-screen and see where the USD-JPY is going to.
I’m going to press pause.
Okay, I’ve just gone long with one unit of six on USD-JPY. We’ve just had a little pullback, but I will add to this if it comes down a little bit lower. It’s had a lovely move up, but it’s hit a lot of resistance so I’m just looking for a few pips. I’m looking for it to come up to the price of the close up here. It’s not a lot with one unit, if I get a couple more in then I can try and run, but at the moment, that’s where we are.
I’ll press pause for a second.
I was just about to get another unit in, but as I started recording, it bounced, so still waiting…
Okay, so it looks at the moment like we’re going to come up to that closing price without me being able to get in any more. So I will be closing out of this at 63. It’s against this closing price and I have to take the profits. Unfortunately it’s very tight but I’m going to have to take that.
So I’ve taken a small profit on USD-JPY at 65. This isn’t over, I’m still looking for more trades yet…
I’m bringing up USD-CAD again. It’s come all the way back up but the way it’s looking now, I think it’s going to settle somewhere in the middle again. It doesn’t actually have the momentum there.
So I’m going to put a short in on USD-CAD. I’m not looking for a huge amount of points but maybe back down to 1.2510. We’ve come up to my upper band on the five minute charts, so I’ve put a short in at 1.2524.
I will put more entries in if we can get them. So if we come back up into that zone then I’ll still consider putting a second entry in.
I could be wrong, obviously. I want to see if this actually a complete mess, which it is. Quite often, when they’re a complete mess, they’ll keep ping-ponging, so I’m giving this a go. This is my second attempt.
I’ve missed out on the opportunity to get into a trend based trade on the EUR-USD and we had those few pips out of USD-JPY but I missed out on those.
I’m going to put a second unit in here on USD-CAD. So I have two units short. So I’m playing it because it’s had this big move up, then down, moving up, just looking to see if it can retrace back down into the 1.2510 zone again.
I’ll press pause for a second.
Okay, so we’re getting close, but as always, when I resume the recording, it goes back up again. If we can get down then I’ll be looking to take one of these positions off. Let’s just see…
It’s just bouncing around at the moment. We’re looking for the white line, hopefully it doesn’t get “white line fever”. We’ll just give it a few more seconds. We’re up 10 pips here. If I see about 13 then I’ll close it out.
There we go. I think I got 14 in the end anyway. I got about 10 pips off that. If this one can get down to the white line then I’ll take that off as well, so we can make up for most of the losses earlier on.
I’ve moved my stops to breakeven at 24, so I can’t lose on the second half.
Now it’s just a case of it going a bit lower. I’ll press pause for a minute.
Okay, so it looks like it was coming close to my stop. I moved my stop aggressively to protect the gain overall. It could still want to bounce but I think it’s going to stop me.
It’s stopped me on the remainder, but we got 10 pips on the other half so it’s a little bit better. I’ll press pause for a minute.
Okay, so we’re now looking for a short trade on the EUR-USD. We’ll see if I can get the entry, I’m just waiting for a few more pips to the up side…
Just back, we still haven’t had that retracement on the five minute chart so it could well be that I’m missing out here, but we’ll see. I’ll press pause for now.
So I’ve just put a unit in, short on the EUR-USD at 08. We’re going to look to get a second unit in if we come up into the 20s. At the moment we’re just waiting to see what’s going to happen with this unit.
We’re having to give this some scope here because we could very easily come up further yet. So if we come up into the 20s then I can get a second unit in, then a stop above that. If we come down to my blue line, then we’ll take half and just see if it rolls over from there.
At the moment, that’s where we’re at. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, so I’m going to put my second unit in at 25… But it’s not allowed me in. I’ll try again. I have a second unit in at 23 and I’ll put a stop at 40. That’s it.
It’s going to cost me, it’ll push me into negative territory today if it’s going to be the case.
I’ll press pause for a second.
Okay. I’ve taken half profits at 10. There was a level there so I’ve taken the profits. I’m going to take the other portion off there as well. So I’m only left with a quarter position in.
What I’ve had to do to get that is go long with 50,000. So if I open my account then it will say I’m net short with 50,000.
I got the initial entry at 08, then I added at 23. The 23 banked profits at 10 and the 08 I have got open here. What I have effectively done is go long with half of that position, so I’m net short 50,000.
The reason I’ve done that is that it makes it more comfortable if price comes up.
I’m going to move my stop down to 23.
The one thing with trading nonfarm payroll day and big news days, is that I have to have wider stops, which is a pain, because I tend to have a slightly inverted risk/reward, certainly to first targets anyway.
What we are looking to do with the remainder of this position, if it can carry on rolling over, is look to see if it can get back down to 1.1065. so quite a lot lower than where we currently are. If it rolls over then this ends up being a really nice trade.
If it comes back up and stops me out at 23, because I’ve taken one and a half off this trade, I can’t lose.
I’ll press pause for now.
Okay, so I have finally been stopped out on this EUR-USD, but this trade didn’t cost anything, in fact it made a marginal gain.
Overall on this one today, not a lot of gains.
I ended up net £6 down on the Euro, net £38 down on USD-CAD, up £156 on USD-JPY.
So I’ve made a whopping £110 today.
So a huge long video with lots of trading, but it just goes to show you that you can’t always get what you want. Sometimes the markets just aren’t going to give it to you.
That’s me finished, have a great weekend and we’ll see what we can do next week.