Friday’s live trading – Small gain today in light markets…
Charlie doesn’t make much in today’s trading so is off to enjoy the weather instead….!
Hi this is Charlie giving you Friday’s live trading.
It’s 8:15am; I’m a bit late getting started this morning. I was looking earlier on and there wasn’t too much going on so I thought I’d nip upstairs and start getting ready. Now I’ve come down to see that the Euro has had a bit of a plunge.
I wouldn’t have got in on that anyway to be honest. What I was looking for is for it to move up to its five minute 50. That’s not going to mean much now.
All square this morning, it’s just a case of seeing what I can find. There’s not a lot of news out this morning. A bit out at lunchtime but I’d rather get the trading out of the way this morning. I’m just going to have a look around and I’ll be back.
Okay so the Euro’s had a bit of a bounce. I’m going to give it a shot at a short. It won’t be for much because I’m not expecting it to completely go down but I’ll put four units in.
I’m not looking for lots of points, just to come back down to the lower bands on the fifteen minute charts around about 20. I’ll just get these stops in and press pause.
I was trying to get this one in quickly because I’d seen this nice rally up and I was watching the slightly higher time frame charts and I could see the potential for a dip back down into that zone.
I’ve put my stop at 35, my entries are at about 30 so they’re tight but I want it to react down pretty much straight away.
I’m keeping it tight because it’s a midway point and it could want to rally further. I didn’t feel the need to give it a wide stop. If it’s going to come down it’s going to come down. Hopefully I don’t get nicked.
If we get down into that zone I’ve got limit orders at 20 and I’ll leave one open and just see with the remainder. We’ve had a move down but there’s always the potential to bounce. I’m seeing some support on some higher time frames so if it was to bounce I wouldn’t take a risk with a big stop.
If we can dip down then it will start triggering limit orders down here at 20. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay I’ve had a look and the low is 23 on the charts so we’re probably looking at about 24 on here. So as it comes to 23 I’m going to have to override it and take one off.
We’ll probably get down to 20 anyway but I better take two of them off and just see if we can get lower. We have hit this lower band on the five and the fifteen. What I’ll do if we get go lower is hold on to a single position.
This is all small stuff because we’re playing around a lot of support of the prior day’s lows and some pivot support and a four hourly support. Obviously if we can break and carry on rolling that would be great, then I’ll just try and hold on to this.
For now I’m going to move this stop down aggressively towards my breakeven point. It’s high risk moving my stop down to that level but I may as well preserve some of those gains so I can enter other trades with a little bit of a buffer behind me. I’m not entirely trusting of this to carry on any lower.
I got in a bit late there because we’d already hit the 21. It’s all around the bands this morning. It’s about the momentum and the momentum was down this morning. Sometimes momentum can be down and trend overall can be up so you’ve got that bit of conflict if you’re coming down to support zones.
So you have to be careful around that and read it but effectively what happened was I knew the momentum was down so I had that on my side to a degree but I knew there was that risk of all these supports on the higher time frames but as far as the entries are concerned this morning it was all about the bands in the mid time frames.
I’ll press pause for a minute.
Okay just back and it has just stopped me out there. It’s come up to 35 while I was off the mic and then come back again. It would be funny if it completely rolled over.
At the moment, just playing a waiting game. I got a bit lucky finding that just a few pips. There’s no news out this morning, there’s news out at 1:30pm so it looks like I might be playing a waiting game until later today. We’ve got a little bit in the bag which might act as a buffer if I lose this afternoon or it might add to any wins that I might have.
The Euro’s just backed off again a little bit but I can see the potential for it to come up to 1.1350 or so. That’s why I was trading so tight anyway, in case it comes down and does a reversal. I’ll press pause for now.
So far the Euro has come back down a bit but even if I’d still been in with one unit I wouldn’t have come out yet because I’d be looking for this to come all the way down. Maybe it’s going to and that would be unfortunate that it did that blip up.
We’ll have to wait and see what happens. It could just have come down and be playing around before it goes up. In many regards I’d rather that happened than sitting on the outside saying I was in that and now I’ve been nicked out.
For now I think it’s going to be a case of playing the waiting game. I can’t see anything else setting up so it’s going to be a slow one this morning.
Just back, unfortunately the Euro did come down even lower so I could have ended up having some points out of that but you can’t always have it your own way. You can argue that my stop was too tight but I could see the potential for it to come up to 50 today so I thought I’d keep it tight.
Anyway it’s come down lower so I’m going to head off down to the gym and we’ll come back to this later.
Okay it’s now 1:26pm; I haven’t done any more this morning. The USD-CAD has had a good run and we’ve got some news coming out in a few minutes. It’s had a very good run but it has hit some resistance so I’m looking for a potential entry to see if we can scalp some points to the downside.
If we get a bounce up to this upper band then I’m going to take an entry, put a stop above the high and then see if it can roll over a bit more. That’s the plan anyway; I might get stopped very quickly.
I’m going to have to go ahead of the news… actually the news today is CPI and retail sales. The problem I’m going to have is if I take a trade early and it shoots up then I’m wrong and then what happens is I could suffer a decent amount of slippage on my trade.
On the other hand if I can’t get in early it might shoot down and then I can’t get in. That’s the real dilemma here today.
One of the guys in our trading room is just saying that last time it had a decent movement so it’s a really tough call. It’s now 1:28pm so there’s two minutes to go and it’s a tough call because if it fires off then I’ll suffer 20 or 30 pips worth of slippage. I’m going to have to wait and see if I can get in after the news. I’ll press pause for now.
Okay what’s going to happen is my spreads will widen up. There’s nothing I can do ahead of the news so lets watch it…
…it’s already come down. That’s the problem. As we can see, after the fact I have no chance of getting in there with the spreads being at 12 pips and it shot straight down and then shot straight back up again.
So its come down to those target levels and then its come straight back up again. Mixed news.
Let’s see if I should give this a bite. I’ll press pause for a second.
Okay I’m going to leave this USD-CAD alone. There’s no point. It came straight down into that support zone and then ran straight back up so I can’t do anything that I can justify with that.
I’m still going to have another look at the markets but it’s looking more likely that the Euro could be the only trade of the day.
One of the guys in the trading room has just identified a potential opportunity. It’s a higher risk opportunity of getting stopped out. The GBP-USD is coming up towards its upper band here. I can put a short on with half a lot, put my stop at the high and see if we can run it all the way down if it was to roll over.
I really don’t know if it’s going to. It’s not going to cost me much.
Okay so I’ve got the short in with half a lot. I’m not entirely convinced by this trade but I’ll put a stop up at 75 and if it stops me out then so be it.
The risk to reward is good because I wouldn’t touch this trade until it comes all the way down to about 15. If it was to roll down this afternoon then I don’t have to touch it so I don’t have to in with a bigger position size.
There is a risk of it getting stopped out but the reward is good. There are lower odds of this trade working out because we’re sitting on hourly support but if it does roll over and break this hourly support then this could end up being a good risk reward. I’m risking seven or eight pips to potentially make 50.
I put the small unit in at 67 with an eight pip stop. What I’m doing is trying not to give those gains back from earlier today so if I do lose it will be £20. I’ll press pause for now.
Just back, I’ve been stopped out. There was a high risk of getting stopped out and it’s had a nice little bounce.
So I made £117 this morning and gave back £25 this afternoon. So a net £93 for the day. Small stuff today, couldn’t really find much there.
I shall leave it at that. Have a great weekend and we’ll be back in touch next week.