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Monday’s video – Controversial analysis…

Charlie looks at a couple of markets and one of his calls is pretty controversial…

Hi this is Charlie giving you Monday’s video. I hope you’re very well.

For a change, this week I’m going to do a little bit of analysis. Some weeks I’ve been inundated with emails and I think they’re quite good educational tools for the Monday videos, but this week I’m just going to keep it nice and simple and give an overall view on the EUR-USD.

I’m actually looking for more upside at the moment. I’m seeing the potential for it, on the daily chart, to come up to its daily 200. I’m just going to double check that off screen on Esignal because their moving averages are more accurate…

They’re up at 1.1690, so this 200 is way off.

That, I do think, is the potential on the EUR-USD.

If we get a close below 1.1150 then all bets are off and we might start to roll over. Obviously we have to allow for that wiggle room because I think that the euro is volatile at the moment, it doesn’t know where it wants to go because of the whole Greece situation, but technically, when I’m doing my analysis I’m seeing the potential for a breakout of these highs.

I don’t know when it’s going to come. We could break up a little bit and come back in again, a bit like we had here. You can see, we had a sharp move up, then a move down. Marginally broke that high there, then came straight back off and then did a similar sort of thing last week. Nobody’s willing to stay in at the moment, but I do the potential, ultimately, for a break out.

That could be a week away, it could be two weeks away. I can’t tell the timing, but what I can do is look at the technicals and say that it looks to me like it has more upside.

Now, I know that we’re into a resistance zone and for that reason I’m leaving the caveat that if we break 1.1150 then all bets are off and maybe we’ll see a rollover.

As it stands, we’ll see how it’s going to move, it could want to back off again, come down to its daily 21 and see if it then starts to come back up again.

At the moment, I’m seeing a potential run into those mid-teens, 1.16 – 1.17. it’s interesting that that’s the way the technicals are looking.

We shall see, we’ll find out in the coming weeks as we get into the thick end of summer, but that’s where we are at the moment.

I’ll have a very quick look at the S&P and the Dow, because they’re both holding up rather well at the moment. If they can carry on holding up here then there’s no reason why we can’t see them make a break for new highs. If they can break last week’s highs then we’re off to the races and I think they will break new highs.

I’ll leave that with you, speak to you on Friday.


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